决定所需作战能力的影响因素研究

Won-Jin Oh, Sangryul Shim
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摘要

武器系统的性能是决定战争胜负的重要因素,用ROC(Required Operational Capability)来表示。ROC是在需求决策阶段确定的,对武器系统包括采办和处置阶段在内的整个生命周期具有决定性影响。不合理的ROC很可能导致采运成本、全生命周期成本的增加和部署的延迟,必须深入研究确定ROC的影响因素。然而,国内学术界对影响因素的研究很少,而且大部分研究都是需求规划和获取研究的一部分,研究结果仅提供一般性建议。因此,本研究旨在对哪些因素影响ROC的确定及其相对重要权重进行系统的实证分析。为了达到上述研究目的,我们首先回顾了国内相关的制度化制度、ROC修改现状及其原因。然后,通过德尔菲法和因子分析法对初步研究得出的ROC影响因素进行验证和最终确定,并通过AHP法对对比分析相对优先级。从2006年到2017年,平均每年发生15例ROC修改,并且这种修改的需求似乎在增长。武器系统作战概念的修改占修改ROC的原因的31%,其次是修正不适当的ROC占17%,修正过度的ROC占14%,互操作武器系统ROC变化带来的附带变化占14%。在最终确定的影响因素中,“武器系统操作概念和安装系统”、“武器系统主要性能要素”的相对重要性权重较高。在较低层次的18个因素中,重要性权重顺序如下:“武器系统作战概念”、“生存能力”、“敌方武器系统性能”、“安装系统性能”和“现有类似武器系统性能”和“互操作性”。本研究的意义在于广泛调查ROC修改的全部相关会议记录,按时间顺序分析ROC修改的原因及其现状,系统分析影响ROC的因素及其相对重要性权重。
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A Study on the Influencing Factors in Deciding ROC (Required Operational Capability)
The performance of weapon systems is the important factor in deciding the outcome of war and expressed in ROC(Required Operational Capability). ROC is determined at the phase of requirement decision and has a decisive effect on the total life cycle of weapon systems including acquisition and its disposal phase. Improper ROC is very likely to cause the increase of acquisition & operating cost, total life cycle cost, and the delay of deployment, influencing factors on determination of ROC must be thoroughly studied. However, domestic academic research on influencing factors are rarely conducted, and most of the research is part of the research on requirement planning and acquisition, the research results provide only general suggestion. Thereby, this research intended to provide systematic and empirical analysis  on what factors influence on determination of ROC and what their relative importance weights. To achieve above mentioned research purpose, first we reviewed relevant institutionalized systems in home and ROC modification status along with their reasons in home. Then, we verified and finalized influencing factors on ROC derived from preliminary research through Delphi Technique and Factor Analysis, and analyzed relative priorities through pair comparison by AHP method. From 2006 to 2017, on average 15 cases of modifying ROC occurred annually and needs of such modification appear to grow. Modification of operational concept of weapon systems comprises 31% of the reasons to modify of ROC, followed by correction of improper ROC is 17%, correction of excessive ROC is 14%, collateral changes by change of interoperable weapon systems' ROC is 14%, respectively. As for relative importance weight of finalized influencing factors, 'Weapon systems operational concept and mounting system', 'Weapon systems major performance elements' are found to be high. In lower level of 18 factors, the order of importance weight is as follows 'Weapon systems operational concept', 'Survivability', 'Enemy weapon systems performance' , 'Mounting system performance' and 'Existing similar weapon systems performance' and 'Interoperability'. The significance of this research would be extensive investigation on entire relevant minutes of meeting of ROC modification, chronological analysis of reason of such modification along with its status, and systematic analysis and relative importance weights of influencing factors on ROC.
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