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引用次数: 14
摘要
本文研究了遗传算法与WRF - Weather Research and Forecast数值天气预报系统的结合,以优化物理参数化配置并改进对2米温度和相对湿度两个重要大气参数的预报。我们的研究表明,在有限的迭代次数下,平均预测误差得到了很好的改善,这对构建遗传算法优化的集合预测有帮助,特别是当关注特定的大气参数时。优化过程在寻找湿度预测的最佳物理配置方面表现良好,但在温度预测方面表现不佳,需要进行更多的实验以清楚地了解使用遗传算法进行物理参数优化的效用。
Use of Genetic Algorithms in Numerical Weather Prediction
This paper investigates the use of genetic algorithms in conjunction with the WRF - Weather Research and Forecast numerical weather prediction system in order to optimize the physical parametrization configuration and to improve the forecast of two important atmospheric parameters: 2 meter temperature and relative humidity. Our research showed good results in improving the average prediction error in limited amount of iterations and this could prove helpful in building GA optimized ensemble forecasts, especially when focusing on specific atmospheric parameters. The optimization process performed well in finding optimal physical configurations for humidity prediction, but showed poor results for temperature forecast, more experiments need to be conducted in order to have a clear view over the utility of using GA techniques for physical parametrization optimization.