通过接种疫苗、潜伏性和感染治疗,对结核病控制模式的全球敏感性和稳定性进行分析

Della Isna Amatillah, Fadilah Ilahi, Mia Siti Khumaeroh
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引用次数: 1

摘要

结核病是一种由结核分枝杆菌引起的传染病,它攻击肺部。结核病是世界上死亡率最高的疾病之一。在这篇文章中,我们将检验包含疫苗接种、潜伏期和感染治疗的结核病控制模型的敏感性和全局稳定性分析。在该模型中,将群体分为免疫群体(M)、易感群体(S)、潜伏结核感染群体(L)、活动性结核感染群体(I)和恢复群体(R) 5个区室,分析平衡点、局部稳定性和全局稳定性、基本繁殖数R0,并进行敏感性分析,观察参数值对基本繁殖数R0的影响。从分析和模拟结果来看,对结核病传播影响最大的参数有两个,即潜伏性结核病的恢复率和活动性结核病的感染率。如果潜伏性结核的恢复率高于活动性结核感染的感染率,则该疾病将逐渐从人群中消失,而如果潜伏性结核的恢复率低于活动性结核的感染率,则该疾病将在人群中传播。
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Analisis Sensitivitas dan Kestabilan Global Model Pengendalian Tuberkulosis dengan Vaksinasi, Latensi dan Perawatan Infeksi
Tuberculosis is an infectious disease caused by the bacterium Mycobacterium tuberculosis which attacks the lungs. Tuberculosis or TB is one of the diseases with the highest mortality rate in the world. In this article, we will examine the sensitivity and global stability analysis of the tuberculosis control model with vaccination, latency and infection treatment. In this model, the population is divided into 5 compartments, namely the immunized population (M), susceptible population (S), infected population with latent TB (L), infected population with active TB (I) and the recovered population (R).  The equilibrium point, local and global stability, basic reproduction number R0 is analyzed along with sensitivity analysis to see the effect of parameter values on the basic reproduction number R0. From the analysis and simulation result, it is found that there are two parameters that have the most influence on the spread of tuberculosis, namely the recovery rate of latent TB and the infection rate of active TB. If the recovery rate of latent TB is higher than the infection rate of active TB infection, then the disease will gradually disappear from the population, whereas if the recovery rate of latent TB is lower than the infection rate of active TB, the disease will spread within the population.
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