最优货币政策的一个简单的前瞻和后向模型

Aderibigbe Aderohunmu, Mustapha Abdulwahid
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摘要

全球宏观经济和政治环境的不断变化,特别是在高通货膨胀持续存在的发展中国家,以及在低稳定通货膨胀和充分就业之间进行权衡,对货币和财政当局来说变得更具挑战性,并增加了审查中央银行最佳货币政策选择的需要。本研究分别在前向和后向两种模型下探讨货币政策的最优选择。特别地,本研究采用了探索性回顾,对该主题的理论和实证文献进行了回顾和综合。文献研究结果表明,最优货币政策应该是向后看还是向前看,两者都有其独特的优势,没有达成共识。该研究的结论是,一个前瞻和后瞻的混合模型,赋予前瞻变量更多的权重,将提高货币政策决策对通胀、就业和经济增长等实际宏观经济变量的反应能力。
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Optimal Monetary Policy in a simple backward and forward looking Models
The growing dynamics of macroeconomic and political environment across the globe particularly in developing countries where high inflation appears persistent, and trade -off between low stable inflation and full employment are becoming more challenging for monetary and fiscal authorities and has increase the needs to review the optimal monetary policy choice by the central banks. The present study investigates the optimal monetary policy choice in a backward and forward looking model. In particular, the study adopt an explorative review where both theoretical and empirical literature on the subject were reviewed and synthesized. The findings from literature revealed that there is no consensus on whether the optimal monetary policy should be backward looking or forward looking as both have their own unique advantages. The study concludes that a hybrid of both forward and backward-looking model where more weights is assigned to forward looking variables will improve the responsiveness of monetary policy decision on real macroeconomic variables like inflation, employment and economic growth.
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