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Optimal Monetary Policy in a simple backward and forward looking Models 最优货币政策的一个简单的前瞻和后向模型
Pub Date : 2022-12-28 DOI: 10.53790/ajmss.v3i5.72
Aderibigbe Aderohunmu, Mustapha Abdulwahid
The growing dynamics of macroeconomic and political environment across the globe particularly in developing countries where high inflation appears persistent, and trade -off between low stable inflation and full employment are becoming more challenging for monetary and fiscal authorities and has increase the needs to review the optimal monetary policy choice by the central banks. The present study investigates the optimal monetary policy choice in a backward and forward looking model. In particular, the study adopt an explorative review where both theoretical and empirical literature on the subject were reviewed and synthesized. The findings from literature revealed that there is no consensus on whether the optimal monetary policy should be backward looking or forward looking as both have their own unique advantages. The study concludes that a hybrid of both forward and backward-looking model where more weights is assigned to forward looking variables will improve the responsiveness of monetary policy decision on real macroeconomic variables like inflation, employment and economic growth.
全球宏观经济和政治环境的不断变化,特别是在高通货膨胀持续存在的发展中国家,以及在低稳定通货膨胀和充分就业之间进行权衡,对货币和财政当局来说变得更具挑战性,并增加了审查中央银行最佳货币政策选择的需要。本研究分别在前向和后向两种模型下探讨货币政策的最优选择。特别地,本研究采用了探索性回顾,对该主题的理论和实证文献进行了回顾和综合。文献研究结果表明,最优货币政策应该是向后看还是向前看,两者都有其独特的优势,没有达成共识。该研究的结论是,一个前瞻和后瞻的混合模型,赋予前瞻变量更多的权重,将提高货币政策决策对通胀、就业和经济增长等实际宏观经济变量的反应能力。
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引用次数: 0
Assessment of interest rate channel Effectiveness in the transmission of Monetary Policy in Nigeria 利率渠道在尼日利亚货币政策传导中的有效性评估
Pub Date : 2022-11-04 DOI: 10.53790/ajmss.v3i5.63
Bulus Yusuf, O. Afiemo, A. Isah
This study attempted to investigate the effectiveness of the interest rate channel in the transmission of monetary policy by employing a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model using sign restriction. It used a set of policy and non-policy macroeconomic variables based on monthly data spanning the period 2007 and 2020. The structural impulse response functions provided evidence to support the use of the MPR as a signaling rate for domestic interest rates but was, however, found to be ineffective in stabilizing prices or increasing output. Furthermore, results from the variance decomposition of the non-policy variables found the effect of exchange rate innovations to be more significant in explaining variations in the price level. The study, therefore, concludes that the effectiveness of the policy rate in stabilizing prices is dampened by shocks prevalent from the external sector. Given the importance of international trade, the study recommends aggressive exchange rate management including policies that encourage import-substitution to build reserves and strengthen the value of the domestic currency.
本研究试图通过使用带有符号限制的结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型来研究利率渠道在货币政策传导中的有效性。它使用了一组基于2007年至2020年期间月度数据的政策和非政策宏观经济变量。结构脉冲响应函数为支持MPR作为国内利率的信号率提供了证据,但在稳定价格或增加产出方面被发现是无效的。此外,非政策变量的方差分解结果发现,汇率创新对解释价格水平变化的影响更为显著。因此,这项研究的结论是,政策利率在稳定价格方面的有效性受到外部部门普遍冲击的影响。考虑到国际贸易的重要性,该研究建议积极的汇率管理,包括鼓励进口替代以建立储备和提高本国货币价值的政策。
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引用次数: 0
Effect of Social Disclosures on the Financial Performance of Selected Food and Beverage Manufacturing Firms in Nigeria 社会披露对尼日利亚选定食品和饮料制造企业财务绩效的影响
Pub Date : 2022-10-08 DOI: 10.53790/ajmss.v3i5.69
G. Oyedokun, Bihu Ayon
This study investigated the effect of social disclosure on the financial performance of selected Nigerian food and beverage industries. Ex-post facto research is used in this study. The information was gathered from the annual reports of the selected food and beverage companies listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange from 2016 to 2020. The study used content analysis to approach social disclosure data and Stata to analyse the acquired data. As a result, a panel data regression technique was used. For the period under consideration, 2011-2020, there were negative but negligible connections between the various scores assessing social and environmental disclosures and the financial performance of food and beverage manufacturers listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange. Given the foregoing, the study recommends that government regulatory authorities and policymakers utilise important theoretical guidance to promote the establishment of a standard reporting guideline for the process of creating a company's non-financial report, or better yet, encourage the process of creating standalone reports and developing standard information disclosure templates, encouraging organisations to disclose corporate environmental monetary information.
本研究调查了社会披露对选定的尼日利亚食品和饮料行业财务绩效的影响。本研究采用事后调查方法。这些信息是从2016年至2020年在尼日利亚证券交易所上市的食品和饮料公司的年度报告中收集的。本研究采用内容分析法对社会披露数据进行处理,采用Stata法对获取的数据进行分析。因此,采用面板数据回归技术。在考虑的2011-2020年期间,评估社会和环境披露的各种分数与尼日利亚证券交易所上市的食品和饮料制造商的财务业绩之间存在负的但可以忽略不计的联系。鉴于上述情况,本研究建议政府监管部门和政策制定者利用重要的理论指导,推动建立公司非财务报告的标准报告指南,或者更好的是,鼓励创建独立报告的过程,并制定标准信息披露模板,鼓励组织披露公司环境财务信息。
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引用次数: 0
Mediating Role of Industrial Output on the relationship between Monetary Policy and Inflation in Nigeria 尼日利亚工业产出对货币政策与通货膨胀关系的中介作用
Pub Date : 2022-10-08 DOI: 10.53790/ajmss.v3i5.68
A. Umaru, Olugbenga Adebayo, Yunah B Bula
obtained from CBN statistical bulletin from 1990Q1 to 2019Q4.  Monetary policy was proxied by monetary policy rate (MPR), prime lending rate (PLR), maximum lending rate (MLR), and treasury bills rate (TBR). The study employed Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) in analysis. It was found that monetary policy rate, prime lending rate, maximum lending rate, and treasury bills rate impacted positively on inflation in Nigeria. It was also found that industrial output impacted negatively on inflation, implying that an increase in industrial output will lead to a reduction in inflation in Nigeria. The study also found that industrial output played a partial mediation on the relationship between prime lending rate (PLR), maximum lending rate (MLR), and inflation but a complete mediation was found for industrial output on the relationship between monetary policy rates (MPR), treasury bills rate (TBR) and inflation in Nigeria. The study concluded that when industrial output is used as a mediator variable, on the relationship between monetary policy and inflation; monetary policy can effectively reduce inflation indirectly by boosting industrial output or production. The study recommends that to achieve the monetary policy objective of price stability, the monetary authority should reduce MPR, PLR, MLR, and TBR to boost industrial output, as industrial output has the potential of reducing the inflation rate in Nigeria.
数据来源于中国广播网1990年第一季度至2019年第四季度的统计公报。货币政策由货币政策利率(MPR)、基本贷款利率(PLR)、最高贷款利率(MLR)和国库券利率(TBR)代表。研究采用结构方程模型(SEM)进行分析。研究发现,货币政策利率、优惠贷款利率、最高贷款利率和国库券利率对尼日利亚的通货膨胀有正向影响。还发现,工业产出对通货膨胀产生负面影响,这意味着工业产出的增加将导致尼日利亚通货膨胀的减少。研究还发现,工业产出对基本贷款利率(PLR)、最高贷款利率(MLR)与通货膨胀之间的关系起了部分中介作用,但在尼日利亚,工业产出对货币政策利率(MPR)、国库券利率(TBR)与通货膨胀之间的关系起了完全中介作用。研究得出结论:当工业产出作为中介变量时,关于货币政策与通货膨胀的关系;货币政策可以通过促进工业产出或生产来间接有效地降低通货膨胀。研究建议,为了实现价格稳定的货币政策目标,货币当局应降低MPR、PLR、MLR和TBR,以促进工业产出,因为工业产出具有降低尼日利亚通货膨胀率的潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Productivity and Welfare Impact of Adoption of Improved Seed in Ethiopia; Critical Review 埃塞俄比亚采用改良种子对生产力和福利的影响评论
Pub Date : 2022-10-08 DOI: 10.53790/ajmss.v3i5.49
Zenaye Degefu Agazhi, Melkamu Meda
This paper is primarily concerned with reviewing the productivity and welfare impacts of improved seeds in Ethiopia. Methodology: This study reviews both theoretical as well as empirical research conducted in Ethiopia. The method of analysis used in this paper is content analysis of literature, with careful organization and presentation of the results. Finding: The result of this critical review has confirmed that using improved seeds enhances productivity and welfare in a significant and promising way. Adoption of improved seeds boosts farm household income, food security, household spending, and poverty reduction. It is also implying that improved seed's impact can be increased if it is paired with other technologies such as fertilizer. Finally, it is suggested that increasing awareness of the availability and benefits of improved seed, increasing access to improved seed, and combining improved seed with other agricultural technologies such as fertilizer help to promote farm household production and well-being.
本文主要关注埃塞俄比亚改良种子的生产力和福利影响。方法:本研究回顾了在埃塞俄比亚进行的理论和实证研究。本文采用的分析方法是文献内容分析,并对结果进行精心组织和呈现。发现:这一重要综述的结果证实,使用改良种子以一种重要的和有希望的方式提高生产力和福利。采用改良种子可提高农户收入、粮食安全、家庭支出和减贫。这也意味着,如果改良种子与肥料等其他技术相结合,它的影响可以增加。最后,建议提高对改良种子的可得性和效益的认识,增加对改良种子的获取,并将改良种子与肥料等其他农业技术相结合,有助于促进农户生产和福祉。
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引用次数: 0
Borrowers Strategic Loan Default in Central Bank Microfinance Facilities and Incentives to Repay 借款人战略贷款违约在中央银行小额信贷工具和激励偿还
Pub Date : 2022-08-29 DOI: 10.53790/ajmss.v3i4.62
Gbadebo Salam, Alase Gbenga, Lamidi Sikiru, T. Joseph
This study examines the incidence of strategic default by borrowers in Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) microfinance loan facilities and the role of incentives to prevent such opportunistic behaviour. A collective strategic default is a situation where sound borrower feigns inability to repay with an expectation that a large number of other borrowers will not repay their loans, thus reducing the bank’s enforcement capacity, and then the effectiveness of the policy. Such opportunistic behaviour of borrowers happens in a framework in which there is no incentives to compel and encourage borrowers to pay back the borrowed funds. Using an extensive form game in a global game theory framework, the study found that without incentives, there is a room for opportunistic behaviour in central government financial intervention programmes. While such programmes are expected to benefit the economy, but incentives, either positive or negative will reduce incidence of strategic default.
本研究考察了尼日利亚中央银行(CBN)小额信贷贷款设施中借款人战略性违约的发生率,以及防止此类机会主义行为的激励措施的作用。集体战略违约是一种情况,在这种情况下,健康的借款人假装无力偿还,并期望大量其他借款人不会偿还贷款,从而降低银行的执行能力,进而降低政策的有效性。借款人的这种机会主义行为发生在一个没有激励措施迫使和鼓励借款人偿还所借资金的框架中。在全球博弈论框架中使用广泛形式的博弈,该研究发现,如果没有激励,中央政府财政干预计划中存在机会主义行为的空间。虽然这些计划预计将有利于经济,但激励措施,无论是积极的还是消极的,都将减少战略违约的发生率。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of the Basic Infrastructures Affecting Child Labour in North-Eastern Nigeria 尼日利亚东北部影响童工的基本基础设施分析
Pub Date : 2022-08-21 DOI: 10.53790/ajmss.v3i4.45
Ibrahim Musa, S. Magaji, Ahmed Tsauni
This study examines the basic infrastructures affecting child labour in North-Eastern Nigeria. The study employed multistage sampling techniques to obtain data from selected local government areas in three states of North Eastern Nigeria. Structured questionnaires were administered to 810 children and their household heads in three wards of each local government area selected. The data obtained were analysed using the Tobit Model. The results show that access to electricity has no significant effect on children engaging in work. This implies that access to electricity has no significant contribution or effect on determining the probability of children engaging in child labour. In addition, access to clean pipe borne water has no significant effect on children engaging in work. But the distance of school from households in kilometers has a significant positive effect on children engaged in work. However, the distance between hospitals and households in kilometers has no significant effect on children engaging in work, and the increase in the distance between hospitals from households in kilometers has the potential to reduce the probability of children engaging in work. Therefore, the study recommends necessary actions such as adequate provision for basic infrastructure.  
本研究考察了影响尼日利亚东北部童工的基本基础设施。该研究采用多阶段抽样技术,从尼日利亚东北部三个州的选定地方政府区域获取数据。对选定的每个地方政府辖区的3个病区的810名儿童及其户主进行了结构化问卷调查。所得数据采用Tobit模型进行分析。结果表明,获得电力对儿童从事工作没有显著影响。这意味着获得电力对确定儿童从事童工劳动的可能性没有重大贡献或影响。此外,获得清洁的管道水对从事工作的儿童没有显著影响。但学校与家庭的距离(以公里为单位)对从事工作的儿童有显著的积极影响。然而,医院与家庭之间的公里距离对儿童从事工作没有显著影响,医院与家庭之间的公里距离的增加有可能降低儿童从事工作的概率。因此,该研究建议采取必要的行动,例如提供充足的基础设施。
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引用次数: 1
Impact of Hydropower Dam on Household Water Security: Evidence from Amerti-Neshe Reservoir in Northwestern Ethiopia 水电大坝对居民用水安全的影响:来自埃塞俄比亚西北部Amerti-Neshe水库的证据
Pub Date : 2022-08-21 DOI: 10.53790/ajmss.v3i4.53
Yeshi Jima, Dawit Diriba, Feyera Senbeta, B. Simane
Understanding the impact of hydropower dam construction on adjacent local community water security is critical for identifying factors that influence water security as well as improving water supplies in rural areas. This study analyzes the impact of hydropower dam construction on the water security of households around the Amerti and Neshe dams in Northwestern Ethiopia. A multistage sampling procedure was followed to select 485 households (268 affected and 217 non-affected) for our analysis. A principal component analysis was applied to five dimensions of water security (access, utilization, affordability, quality, and quantity) and then the households water security index (HWSI) was constructed. An endogenous switching regression model was applied to analyze the impact of dam construction on the water security status at the household level in the study area.  Our findings revealed that there is a significant mean difference in HWSI between affected and non-affected households regarding water access and quality. The average treatment effect indicates that the construction of the two dams has had a negative impact on household water security, reducing it by 12%. As a result, government and other stakeholders should consider relocating affected households to better areas in order to mitigate such negative effects on household water security.
了解水电大坝建设对邻近当地社区水安全的影响,对于确定影响水安全的因素以及改善农村地区的供水至关重要。本研究分析了水电大坝建设对埃塞俄比亚西北部Amerti和Neshe大坝周边家庭用水安全的影响。采用多阶段抽样程序,选取485户(268户受影响,217户未受影响)进行分析。采用主成分分析法对水安全五个维度(可及性、利用率、可负担性、质量和数量)进行分析,构建家庭水安全指数(HWSI)。采用内生性切换回归模型分析了研究区大坝建设对家庭水安全状况的影响。我们的研究结果显示,在受影响和未受影响的家庭之间,关于水的获取和质量的HWSI有显著的平均差异。平均处理效果表明,两座大坝的建设对家庭用水安全产生了负面影响,减少了12%。因此,政府和其他利益相关者应考虑将受影响的家庭搬迁到更好的地区,以减轻对家庭用水安全的负面影响。
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引用次数: 1
Re-examining agricultural output-economic growth nexus in Nigeria: New insights from Dynamic ARDL and Kernel-based Regularized Least Squares 重新审视尼日利亚的农业产出-经济增长关系:来自动态ARDL和基于核的正则化最小二乘的新见解
Pub Date : 2022-07-14 DOI: 10.53790/ajmss.v3i3.51
S. Akadiri, Gbenga Peter Enitan, P. F. Offum, Bukola Omotayo Fashoro, R. Joshua
The role of agriculture in reforming social and economic framework of an economy cannot be over-emphasized. It is against this backdrop, this study re-investigate the impact of agricultural output on real output in Nigeria for the period 1981-2019, while controlling for manufacturing output, broad money supply, real effective exchange rate and inflation. We employ a dynamic simulated autoregressive distributed lag model developed by Jordan and Philips (2018) and the Kernel-based Regularized Least Squares (KRLS) proposed by Hainmueller and Hazlett (2014) with useful application in the determination of causal-effect relationship using machine-learning algorithm to implement the pointwise derivatives. Empirical result show that, all regressors except conventional money supply are insignificant in the short-run, while an increasing effect of agricultural output and decreasing effect of unconventional monetary policy on economic growth is reported in the long run. Using the KRLS, we find that, higher agricultural output, increase economic growth at a higher level to a threshold where decreasing marginal returns take place. This indicate that increase in agricultural output is not always growth stimulating. Thus, we are of the opinion that, policymakers in formulating agricultural policy should exercise caution in advocating for increase in agricultural output beyond what is normal for growth while the negative impact of unconventional monetary policy on economic growth calls for caution by the monetary authority.
农业在改革一个经济体的社会和经济框架方面的作用怎么强调都不过分。正是在这种背景下,本研究在控制制造业产出、广义货币供应量、实际有效汇率和通货膨胀的情况下,重新调查了1981-2019年期间尼日利亚农业产出对实际产出的影响。我们采用了Jordan和Philips(2018)开发的动态模拟自回归分布滞后模型和Hainmueller和Hazlett(2014)提出的基于核的正则化最小二乘(KRLS),该模型在使用机器学习算法实现点导数确定因果关系方面具有有用的应用。实证结果表明,在短期内,除常规货币供给外,所有回归因子都不显著,而在长期内,农业产出对经济增长的影响是增加的,非常规货币政策对经济增长的影响是减少的。利用KRLS,我们发现,农业产出越高,经济增长在较高水平上达到边际收益下降的阈值。这表明农业产出的增加并不总是刺激经济增长。因此,我们认为,政策制定者在制定农业政策时,应谨慎提倡农业产出超出正常增长范围的增长,而非常规货币政策对经济增长的负面影响则需要货币当局谨慎对待。
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引用次数: 0
Ecosystem Services Demand and Supply in a City Region: Implications for Regional Spatial Planning in Mekelle City 城市区域生态系统服务需求与供给:对迈克勒市区域空间规划的启示
Pub Date : 2022-07-14 DOI: 10.53790/ajmss.v3i3.55
Shishay Kiros
The provision of ecosystem services is determined by three factors: supply, demand, and flow. The study looked into both the demand and supply sides, as well as the spatial and temporal variations between supply and demand, from the perspective of a city region. To investigate the mismatch between demand and supply both quantitative and qualitative sources of data were employed. Landsat data, expert knowledge, document review, and qualitative data including key informant interview was utilized. The land-use patterns analyses show that ecosystem services flow in the city surroundings are higher than those within Mekelle city’s administrative boundary. Land use/land cover dynamics were the main drivers of ecosystem services supply decline in the Mekelle city region. Those changes negatively affected the capacity of ecosystems to provide goods and services to the growing urban and rural populations. This supply of bundles of ecosystem services did not match the demands of the society which endangered the sustainable utilization of natural capital. The results disclose land-use patterns over time and space as well as the capacities of different ecosystems to provide sustainable ecosystem services supply are declining. On the contrary, demands for these services are increasing due to the growth of the population and economic activities. The study can support spatial planners in addressing the sustainable use of watershed ecosystem services.  
生态系统服务的提供由三个因素决定:供给、需求和流量。该研究从城市区域的角度考察了需求侧和供给侧,以及供需之间的时空变化。为了调查需求和供给之间的不匹配,采用了定量和定性的数据来源。利用陆地卫星数据、专家知识、文献审查和定性数据,包括关键线人访谈。土地利用格局分析表明,城市周边的生态系统服务流量高于城市行政边界内的生态系统服务流量。土地利用/土地覆被动态变化是导致麦克勒城区生态系统服务供给下降的主要因素。这些变化对生态系统向不断增长的城市和农村人口提供商品和服务的能力产生了负面影响。这种捆绑的生态系统服务供应与社会需求不匹配,危及自然资本的可持续利用。结果表明,随着时间和空间的变化,土地利用模式以及不同生态系统提供可持续生态系统服务的能力都在下降。相反,由于人口和经济活动的增长,对这些服务的需求正在增加。该研究可为空间规划者解决流域生态系统服务的可持续利用提供支持。
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引用次数: 0
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Applied Journal of Economics, Management and Social Sciences
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