通用技术概念在经济中系统传播的预测潜力

S. Tolkachev, A. Teplyakov, A.V. Falaleeva
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文试图对流行的技术发展概念——工业革命、技术模式、通用技术进行比较分析。它展示了通用技术思想的发展和问题的现状。通用技术按照资本积累的逻辑,始终按照“生产-运输-信息”的方案进行部署。基于作者的通用技术综合体循环发展概念的发展,数字技术作为新兴的第三次技术大周期或第三次工业革命的关键作用得到了证实。有一种预测假设认为,nbic技术的全面工业部署将在下一个技术大周期,届时各个组件有效合成的所有行业先决条件都将成熟。
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Predicting Potential of the Systematic Dissemination of General-Purpose Technologies Concept in the Economy
The article attempts a comparative analysis of popular concepts of technological development – industrial revolutions, technological modes, general purpose technologies. It shows the development of ideas about general purpose technologies and the current state of the problem. General purpose technologies are consistently deployed on the scheme “production-transport-information” in accordance with the logic of capital accumulation. Based on the development of the author’s concept of cyclic development of the general purpose technologies complex, the role of digital technologies as key for the emerging third technological megacycle or the third industrial revolution is substantiated. There is a forecast assumption that the full-scale industrial deployment of NBIC-technologies will be in the next technological megacycle, when all industry prerequisites for the effective synthesis of individual components will mature.
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