中国降雨IDF分析的简单多重分形模型

Qin Huang, Yuanfang Chen, Sui Xu, Jing Liu
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摘要

降雨强度-持续时间-频率(IDF)曲线是水利工程中最常用的工具之一。本文采用Andreas Langousis认可的具有多重分形行为的简单多重分形降雨模型来估计IDF曲线。模型由恒定持续时间D和“裸”强度I D '的外部过程和内部过程组成。Langousis利用高分辨率降雨记录数据,得出了IDF曲线的结果对数据记录长度不敏感的结论。因此,本文以广东省南雄站6年5 min分辨率降水资料为例,利用该模型估算了IDF曲线。与传统的参数模式相比,减少了需要计算的参数量,6年高分辨率降水资料可以估算IDF曲线。采用Pearson-3(P3)分布拟合了22年最大年日降雨量数据,得到了不同回归期T的日降雨强度,结果与T≤100年多重分形模型的24小时降雨强度相似。该研究对中国缺乏长期充足降水资料的地区具有重要的现实意义。
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A simple multifractal model for rainfall IDF analysis in China
the rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves is one of the most commonly tools used in water resources engineering. A simple multifractal rainfall model with multifractal behavior approved by Andreas Langousis is used to estimate the IDF curves in this paper. The model is composed of exterior and interior process with constant duration D and “bare” intensity I D ′. Using high resolution data of rainfall record, Langousis gives the conclusion that the results of the IDF curves tends insensitive to the length of data record. So, in this paper, the 6 years rainfall data at 5-min resolution at Nanxiong station, Guangdong province, China, are applied with the model to estimate the IDF curves. Compared to the traditional parametric models, it reduces the amount of parameters required to be calculated, and 6years of high resolution rainfall data is capable to estimate the IDF curves. 22years maxima annual daily rainfall data are fitted by the Pearson-3(P3) distribution to obtain the daily rainfall intensities for different return period T. The results are similar to 24h rainfall intensities of the multifractal model with T ≤ 100years. The study is of significant practical importance in China for the regions lacking of long sufficient rainfall data.
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