反俄制裁的影响:俄罗斯联邦对外贸易减少和生产增长的后果

S. V. Kazantsev
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引用次数: 1

摘要

在当代经济中,商品的生产、储存和交付都有技术、经济和运输环节。因此,一种新产品的出现或现有产品产量的增加,需要其他产品的生产发生变化,并通过技术链与此产品联系起来。投入产出平衡的统计数据和模型使我们能够追踪这种联系链,并计算不同商品的产量。本文载有对俄罗斯出口禁令和限制的跨部门影响链的研究结果。这项研究表明,一些商品出口的减少对许多其他商品的产量产生了负面影响。进口的减少也有类似的效果。作者还展示了不同商品和服务产出的增长对俄罗斯经济中其他类型商品生产和服务规模变化的影响的计算结果。
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Anti-russian sanctions impact: aftermath of a reduction in foreign trade and production growth in the Russian Federation
There are technological, economic, transport links in the production, storage and delivery of goods in the contemporary economy. Therefore, the appearance of a new or an increase in the volume of production of an existing product requires changes in the production of other products, linked with this one through the technological chains. Statistical data and models of input-output balance allow us to trace such chains of connections and calculate the volumes production of different goods. This paper contains the results of a study of intersectoral chains of influence of bans and restrictions imposed on Russian exports. The study shows the reduction in the export of some goods has a negative effect on the output of a number of other goods. The decrease in imports has a similar effect. The author also shows calculations’ results of the growth impact on the output of different goods and services on changes in the scale of other types of goods production and services in the Russian economy.
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