财政状况对菲律宾各省社会经济发展的影响

A. Aguilar
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摘要

本文对菲律宾各省财政状况对社会经济发展的影响进行了定量研究。采用普遍抽样,其中包括菲律宾所有83个省。本文通过使用来自不同政府机构的二手数据,从国家政府补贴、收入、经营支出、总资产、公共债务和预算盈余这6个参数来确定各省的财政状况;确定各省在贫困发生率、助产死亡率、专业助产出生率和劳动力参与率方面的社会经济发展情况;运用Pearson积差相关分析确定财政状况与社会经济发展是否存在相关性;并通过多元线性回归分析确定财政状况对社会经济发展的影响程度。研究的结论是,就财政状况而言,吕宋岛地区最富有,棉兰老岛地区最贫穷;贫困发生率在吕宋岛地区最低,特别是在北部地区,而在棉兰老岛最高,特别是在三宝颜半岛和ARMM。相关分析表明,财政状况与贫困发生率之间存在较强的负相关;财政状况与住院死亡率之间存在非常强的正相关关系;财政状况与专业助产士出生率之间存在适度的正相关关系。多元线性回归分析表明,预算盈余对贫困发生率的影响具有统计学意义;资产和公共债务对专业助产率的影响有统计学意义,资产的影响更大。同时,财政状况参数对住院死亡率的影响均无统计学意义。
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The Influence of Fiscal Position to the Socio-Economic Development of the Provinces in the Philippines
This study on the Influence of fiscal position to the socio-economic development of the provinces in the Philippines is a quantitative research. Universal sampling was employed wherein all of the 83 provinces in the Philippines were included. Through the use of secondary data from various government agencies, the ultimate goals of this study are to determine the fiscal position of the provinces in terms of the 6 parameters namely, national government subsidy, income, operational expenditures, total assets, public debts, and budget surplus; to determine the socio-economic development of the provinces in terms of poverty incidence, attended mortality rate, professionally attended birth rate, and labor force participation rate; to determine if correlation exist between fiscal position and socioeconomic development using the Pearson product-moment correlation analysis; and to determine the degree of influence of fiscal position to socioeconomic development through multiple linear regression analysis. The research undertaking concluded that in terms of fiscal position, Luzon regions are the richest while and Mindanao regions are the poorest; poverty incidence is lowest in Luzon regions especially in the NCR while highest in Mindanao most particularly in the Zamboanga Peninsula and in ARMM. Correlation analysis revealed that there is a strong negative relationship between fiscal position and poverty incidence; a very strong positive relationship between fiscal position and attended mortality rate; and a moderate positive relationship between fiscal position and professionally attended birth rate. Multiple linear regression analysis revealed that the influence of budget surplus to poverty incidence is statistically significant; and the influences of assets and public debts to professionally attended birth rate are statistically significant, assets having the greater influence. Meanwhile, none of the influences of fiscal position parameters to attended mortality rate is statistically significant.
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