造成多瑙河沿岸异常流量的气象情况。(个案研究- 2006年4月的情况)。

Mihai Bocioaca
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引用次数: 0

摘要

对欧洲来说,多瑙河无可争议的重要性可以用一些一般数据来说明:它的水文流域面积超过817000平方公里,约占欧洲大陆面积的10%,它的长度为2857公里,多年平均流量约为6500立方米/秒,仅次于伏尔加河。罗马尼亚是多瑙河流域面积最大的国家(97.4%),占多瑙河流域面积的29%。多瑙河巴济亚斯段水资源总量为1730亿立方米,其中技术可利用资源300亿立方米。我们的分析旨在确定在欧洲大陆一级引发多瑙河沿岸异常排放的复杂气象情况,造成严重的洪水,进而造成严重的破坏、死亡、人口疏散和相当大的恢复成本。进行了统计天气型的复杂分析,确定了决定此类灾害发生的复杂气象情况。多瑙河在整个测量期间的流量和水位使用了来自国家气象局档案的数据,以及来自weterzentrale (Kartenarchiv、NCEP、NCAR、AVN等)的数据、地图和图像档案。欧洲大陆层面的复杂气象情况引发了多瑙河沿岸的异常排放,这与冰岛和地中海气旋的强烈气旋活动、北大西洋涛动的负相位以及太阳活动的减少或最小(根据NOAA空间环境中心的数据)有关。最严重的洪水发生在2006年春天。这篇论文对气象学家、对他们的天气预报活动、对水文学家、对他们的水文预报以及对参与洪水管理的机构都很重要。
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Meteorological situations that generated exceptional discharges along the Danube River. (Case study- the situation of April 2006).
For Europe, the undisputed importance of the Danube can be rendered by some general data: Its hydrographic basin surface exceeds 817000 km2, i.e. about 10% of that of the continent, its length is 2857 km and its mean multiannual discharge is about 6500 m3/s, thus ranking second to Volga river. Romania is the country with the largest surface situated within Danube’s basin (97.4%), representing 29% of Danube’s hydrographic basin. The water resources of the Danube in Bazias section amount to 173 billion m3, 30 billion m3 of which are technically usable resources.Our analysis aimed at determining those complex meteorological situations at the European continent level that triggered exceptional discharges along the Danube river, resulting in severe flooding, causing in turn heavy damages, fatalities, population evacuations and considerable rehabilitation costs. A complex analysis was performed, of statistical-synoptic type and those complex meteorological situations were identified that determined the occurrence of such disasters. Discharges and levels of the Danube were used along the whole measuring period, data from the archive of the National Meteorological Administration, and data, map and image archives from Wetterzentrale (Kartenarchiv, NCEP, NCAR, AVN etc.). The complex meteorological situations at the level of the European continent that triggered exceptional discharges along the Danube correlate with intense cyclonic activity, of both the Icelandic and the Mediterranean cyclones, with the negative phase of the North-Atlantic Oscillation and with decreasing or minimum solar activity (according to data from NOAA's Space Environment Center). The most disastrous floods occurred in the spring of 2006. The paper is important for meteorologists, in their weather forecasting activity, for hydrologists, in their hydrological forecasting and for the institutions involvedin flood management.
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