Methods for Determining a Quantitative Indicator of Threats to Information Security in Telecommunications and Industrial Automation Systems

The paper considers the issue of assessing threats to information security in industrial automation and telecommunication systems in order to improve the efficiency of their security systems. A method for determining a quantitative indicator of threats is proposed, taking into account the probabilistic nature of the process of implementing negative impacts on objects of both industrial and telecommunications systems. The factors that contribute and (or) initiate them are also determined, the dependences of the formal definition of the quantitative indicator of threats are obtained. Methods for a quantitative threat assessment as well as the degree of this threat are presented in the form of a mathematical model in order to substantiate and describe the method for determining a threat to industrial automation systems. Recommendations necessary for obtaining expert assessments of negative impacts on the informatisation objects and information security systems counteracting are formulated to facilitate making decisions on the protection of industrial and telecommunication systems.