能源价格变动对其他行业价格的影响:基于投入产出价格模型的研究

Aiwen Zhao, Ruilin Li
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引用次数: 2

摘要

能源为人类社会的发展奠定了物质基础。同时,能源行业的任何价格变动都可能通过一种投入产出机制对社会生产和人民生活的各个层面产生影响,在这种投入产出机制下,与能源相关的变动必然会传导到其他行业。由此引起的所有行业的价格变动可能会对维持价格稳定这一宏观经济目标的实现产生不利影响。因此,有必要对能源行业价格变动对其他行业价格变动的影响进行实证研究。根据《中国2015年投入产出延伸表(42个部门)》的数据和4个假设基础,本文以4个能源行业为研究对象,运用投入产出模型分析了在5种价格单独或同时上涨10%的情况下,能源行业价格变动对其他工业产品价格变动的影响程度,以及产生影响的原因。结果表明,能源价格的上涨会导致其他工业产品价格的上涨,特别是当它们的价格同时上涨时。此外,四大能源行业的价格上涨并不会以积累的形式对其他行业产生影响,反而会导致其他一些行业的价格回落。建议针对不同的能源产品采取多样化的定价策略,从而使每种特定能源的价值最大化,同时达到降低能耗和价格均衡的目标。
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The Influences of Energy Price Variation on the Prices of Other Industries: A Study Based on Input-Output Price Model
Energy has laid material foundation for human society during its development. Meanwhile, any change of price in the energy industry may influence social production and people’s life at all levels via an input-output mechanism under which the change related to energy is surely transmitted to other industries. The price change thus incurred in all industries may adversely affect the realization of macroeconomic objective-maintaining prices at a stable level. It is, therefore, needed to conduct an empirical research related to the impact of price change in energy industry on that in other industries. According to the data coming from “China’s 2015 Input-Output Extension Table (42 Departments)” and four hypothetical basis, this article focuses on four energy sectors and analyzes how deeply the price change of them, by use of input-output model, affects that of other industrial products under five conditions where each of their price rises by 10% individually or simultaneously, and why such an influence occurs. The results show that the price rising of the energies in question leads to an upward growth in the prices of other industrial products, especially when their prices go up simultaneously. Besides, the price increase in the four energy sectors doesn’t influence other industries in an accumulation form but actually leads to a rollback in some of other industries. It is recommended to adopt diversified pricing strategies for different energy products, thus maximizing the value of each specific energy, and meanwhile achieving the goals of energy consumption reduction and price equilibrium.
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