Forecasting the reliability and safety of future space transportation systems

Forecasting the future is can never be considered as an exact science. However if the tools of risk assessment are used to develop such forecasts in a systematic and coherent fashion, and if they properly take into account the uncertainty in the achievement of the promised benefits of future designs, then, not only can the decision making process be made more tractable and orderly, but design alternatives, which are not immediately apparent, may also come to light. In this paper, the author forecasts the reliability and safety of future space transportation systems.