是什么导致一个地区投票脱欧?

Alexandre Melo, Francisco Lhano, J. Gouveia, Miguel Santa-Clara
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摘要

2016年6月23日,英国投票决定脱离欧盟,这是欧洲历史上前所未有的事件。在本文中,我们分析了英国四个国家的386个地方司法管辖区的退出投票份额,以找到一个地区的特征,其人口与其退出投票份额之间的关系。我们使用多元线性回归模型来分析数据。我们得出的结论是,一个地区对英国脱欧的投票比例较高,在很大程度上可以解释为该地区失业率较低、白人占多数、教育水平较低。我们还得出结论,认为老年人对英国脱欧投票有贡献的普遍误解可能是没有根据的。我们还建立了在2015年全国大选中投票给右翼政党和在2016年投票支持英国脱欧之间的联系。
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What Leads A District To A Brexit Vote?
On the 23rd of June 2016, the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, leading to an unprecedented event in European history. In this paper, we analyse the exit voting shares in 386 local jurisdictions across the UK's four nations, to find a relationship between the characteristics of a district, its population and its exit voting share. We use a multiple linear regression model to analyse the data. We conclude that a higher voting share for Brexit in a district is largely explained by it having a lower unemployment rate, a white ethnic majority, and lower education levels. We also conclude that the common misconception of elderly people contributing to the Brexit vote may be unfounded. We also establish a connection between having voted for a right party in the 2015 national election and having voted for Brexit in 2016.
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