On Subtle Factors of Development Uncertainty in the Long Term and Ways of Adapting to New Challenges

The article considers long-term development trends under conditions of uncertainty, a preliminary scenario analysis of the economic status after the events of February 24, 2022 is provided. The author proposes methods and means to adapt to new challenges. Particular attention is paid to the structuring of basic trends and systemic processes. The advancement of development scenarios and the main scenario-forming contradictions are described in detail. The article provides recommendations for the transition from stabilization to development. An example of the implementation of the proposed adaptation strategy in relation to organizations of science and technology is given.