基于Elman神经网络的沈阳市房价分析与预测

Zhao Zhirui
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引用次数: 0

摘要

近年来,全国房价呈缓慢上升趋势,房地产市场纵横交错,沈阳也不例外。本文选择能够处理动态时间序列信息的Elman神经网络对沈阳市平均房价走势进行预测。本文选取沈阳市2015年9月至2021年8月72个月的平均房价,用7个月作为一组训练样本,前6个月作为输入数据,第7个月作为输出数据,共66组,前58组作为训练集,后8组作为测试集。同时,采用BP神经网络和RBF神经网络进行相同的预测,并对三者的预测结果进行对比分析。结果表明,Elman神经网络和BP神经网络的预测性能均优于RBF神经网络。在误差细节方面,由于Elman神经网络可以更好地处理时间序列数据,因此与BP神经网络相比,Elman神经网络的预测值更接近真实值,可预测性更好。
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Analysis and Prediction of Housing Prices in Shenyang City Based on Elman Neural Network
In recent years, housing prices across the country have been on a slow upward trend, and the real estate market is crisscrossed, and Shenyang is no exception. This paper chooses the Elman neural network that can process dynamic time series information to predict the trend of average housing prices in Shenyang. The article selects the average house price of Shenyang for 72 months from September 2015 to August 2021 in Shenyang, using 7 months as a set of training samples, the first 6 months as input data, and the seventh month as output data .There are 66 groups in total, the first 58 groups are used as training sets, and the last 8 groups are used as test sets. At the same time, the BP neural network and the RBF neural network are used for the same prediction, and the prediction results of the three are compared and analyzed. It was found that both the Elman neural network and the BP neural network are better than the RBF neural network in predicting performance. In terms of error details, since the Elman neural network can better process time series data, compared to the BP neural network, the predicted value of the Elman neural network is closer to the true value, and the predictability is better.
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