祁县板栗干旱灾害风险评价

Xiaojuan Chen, Ting Li, Jing Zhang, Jun Wei
{"title":"祁县板栗干旱灾害风险评价","authors":"Xiaojuan Chen, Ting Li, Jing Zhang, Jun Wei","doi":"10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.43","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Based on daily precipitation of Qianxi and six surrounding counties from 1984 to 2015, we estimate the risk of drought in Qianxi county during a series of return periods by probability distribution. So does the chestnut-drought risk by distribution of chestnut and relative risk grade. It is concluded that the risk of drought is higher in the southwest of Qianxi. The drought area and intensity increase with the augment of return period. Percentage of precipitation departure is -43% in Baimiaozi, Xingcheng, Xinzhuangzi and Donglianhua township when the return period is 30a. It is -52% when the return period being 100a. The distributions of chestnuts are largest in Yangjiayu and Shimenzi village, Hanerzhuang township, which are 683 and 670 ha. Influenced by hazard factor and bearing body, the risk grade is highest in most areas of Hanerzhuang, Luanyang, Shangying and Jinchangyu town. Keywords—chestnut; drought; risk; risk grade 摘要—本文基于 1984-2015 年的迁西县及周围 6 个县的日 降水量资料,运用概率分布理论对不同重现期下迁西干旱致 灾因子危险性进行评估,并结合各村板栗暴露数据,利用相 对风险等级法,对板栗干旱进行风险评估。结果表明:迁西 县西南部干旱致灾因子危险性相对较高。随着重现期的增 大,干旱面积和致灾强度也在增加,白庙子乡、兴城镇、新 庄子乡和东莲花院乡 30 年一遇的降水距平百分率达-43%, 100 年一遇达-52%。汉儿庄乡的杨家峪村、石门子村的板栗种 植面积最多,分别为 683 和 670 公顷。风险受到致灾因子与 承灾体共同作用,北部的汉儿庄、滦阳、洒河桥、上营和金","PeriodicalId":142201,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Fourth Symposium on Disaster Risk Analysis and Management in Chinese Littoral Regions (DRAMCLR 2019)","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Risk Assessment of Chestnut Drought Disaster in qixian county\",\"authors\":\"Xiaojuan Chen, Ting Li, Jing Zhang, Jun Wei\",\"doi\":\"10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.43\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Based on daily precipitation of Qianxi and six surrounding counties from 1984 to 2015, we estimate the risk of drought in Qianxi county during a series of return periods by probability distribution. So does the chestnut-drought risk by distribution of chestnut and relative risk grade. It is concluded that the risk of drought is higher in the southwest of Qianxi. The drought area and intensity increase with the augment of return period. Percentage of precipitation departure is -43% in Baimiaozi, Xingcheng, Xinzhuangzi and Donglianhua township when the return period is 30a. It is -52% when the return period being 100a. The distributions of chestnuts are largest in Yangjiayu and Shimenzi village, Hanerzhuang township, which are 683 and 670 ha. Influenced by hazard factor and bearing body, the risk grade is highest in most areas of Hanerzhuang, Luanyang, Shangying and Jinchangyu town. Keywords—chestnut; drought; risk; risk grade 摘要—本文基于 1984-2015 年的迁西县及周围 6 个县的日 降水量资料,运用概率分布理论对不同重现期下迁西干旱致 灾因子危险性进行评估,并结合各村板栗暴露数据,利用相 对风险等级法,对板栗干旱进行风险评估。结果表明:迁西 县西南部干旱致灾因子危险性相对较高。随着重现期的增 大,干旱面积和致灾强度也在增加,白庙子乡、兴城镇、新 庄子乡和东莲花院乡 30 年一遇的降水距平百分率达-43%, 100 年一遇达-52%。汉儿庄乡的杨家峪村、石门子村的板栗种 植面积最多,分别为 683 和 670 公顷。风险受到致灾因子与 承灾体共同作用,北部的汉儿庄、滦阳、洒河桥、上营和金\",\"PeriodicalId\":142201,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Proceedings of the Fourth Symposium on Disaster Risk Analysis and Management in Chinese Littoral Regions (DRAMCLR 2019)\",\"volume\":\"31 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"1900-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Proceedings of the Fourth Symposium on Disaster Risk Analysis and Management in Chinese Littoral Regions (DRAMCLR 2019)\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.43\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Proceedings of the Fourth Symposium on Disaster Risk Analysis and Management in Chinese Littoral Regions (DRAMCLR 2019)","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.43","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

以1984 - 2015年迁西县及周边六县的日降水量为基础,利用概率分布法估算了迁西县一系列回归期的干旱风险。板栗的干旱风险也随板栗的分布和相对风险等级而变化。结果表明,黔西西南部地区干旱风险较高。干旱面积和强度随回归期的延长而增加。百庙子、兴城、新庄子、东莲花乡在回归期为30a时降水偏离率为-43%。当回归周期为100a时,为-52%。板栗分布最多的是汉儿庄乡杨家峪村和石门子村,分别为683公顷和670公顷。受危害因子和承载体的影响,汉儿庄、栾阳、上营和金场峪镇的大部分地区风险等级最高。Keywords-chestnut;干旱;风险;风险等级摘要——本文基于1984 - 2015年的迁西县及周围6个县的日降水量资料,运用概率分布理论对不同重现期下迁西干旱致灾因子危险性进行评估,并结合各村板栗暴露数据,利用相对风险等级法,对板栗干旱进行风险评估。结果表明:迁西 县西南部干旱致灾因子危险性相对较高。随着重现期的增 大,干旱面积和致灾强度也在增加,白庙子乡、兴城镇、新 庄子乡和东莲花院乡 30 年一遇的降水距平百分率达-43%, 100 年一遇达-52%。汉儿庄乡的杨家峪村、石门子村的板栗种 植面积最多,分别为 683 和 670 公顷。风险受到致灾因子与 承灾体共同作用,北部的汉儿庄、滦阳、洒河桥、上营和金
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
Risk Assessment of Chestnut Drought Disaster in qixian county
Based on daily precipitation of Qianxi and six surrounding counties from 1984 to 2015, we estimate the risk of drought in Qianxi county during a series of return periods by probability distribution. So does the chestnut-drought risk by distribution of chestnut and relative risk grade. It is concluded that the risk of drought is higher in the southwest of Qianxi. The drought area and intensity increase with the augment of return period. Percentage of precipitation departure is -43% in Baimiaozi, Xingcheng, Xinzhuangzi and Donglianhua township when the return period is 30a. It is -52% when the return period being 100a. The distributions of chestnuts are largest in Yangjiayu and Shimenzi village, Hanerzhuang township, which are 683 and 670 ha. Influenced by hazard factor and bearing body, the risk grade is highest in most areas of Hanerzhuang, Luanyang, Shangying and Jinchangyu town. Keywords—chestnut; drought; risk; risk grade 摘要—本文基于 1984-2015 年的迁西县及周围 6 个县的日 降水量资料,运用概率分布理论对不同重现期下迁西干旱致 灾因子危险性进行评估,并结合各村板栗暴露数据,利用相 对风险等级法,对板栗干旱进行风险评估。结果表明:迁西 县西南部干旱致灾因子危险性相对较高。随着重现期的增 大,干旱面积和致灾强度也在增加,白庙子乡、兴城镇、新 庄子乡和东莲花院乡 30 年一遇的降水距平百分率达-43%, 100 年一遇达-52%。汉儿庄乡的杨家峪村、石门子村的板栗种 植面积最多,分别为 683 和 670 公顷。风险受到致灾因子与 承灾体共同作用,北部的汉儿庄、滦阳、洒河桥、上营和金
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
期刊最新文献
The Characteristics of Climate Change in Latest 60 Years and Extreme Severe Weather in latest 10 Years in Qinhuangdao Improvement measures of questionnaire design for risk communication in Internet of intelligences Using Game Theory Approach for Assessment of Risk and Police Patrols Scheduling Research on Risk Sharing of Creative Industrial Park by Recycling Old Industrial Buildings Research on Financial Early Warning of Big Data Enterprises Based on Logistic Regression and BP Neural Network
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1