Pub Date : 2019-11-01DOI: 10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.45
Sen Qiao, Z. Wen, Changlong Li, Qing Wu, Zongchao Li, Tiefei Li
Shandong and its coastal areas are located in the eastern part of the North China tectonic region, and their strong seismic activities are uneven. There have been devastating earthquakes such as the Tanlu earthquake, the Bohai earthquake, and the Heze earthquake in history. With the development of the economy and the dramatic increase in population density, the earthquake disaster risk in Shandong and coastal areas has become increasingly high. This paper focuses on the characteristics of earthquake hazard analysis and earthquake disaster risk in Shandong and coastal areas, introduces population density and GDP development level of Shandong area into the disaster carrier, and then obtains the spatial distribution of earthquake disater risk in Shandong province. At last, according to the characteristics of earthquake disaster risk in Shandong, some suggestions to reduce earthquake disaster risk are given. Keywords—Earthquake Hazard Analysis; Earthquake Disaster Risk Analysis; Disaster carrier; Shandong and its coastal areas; preliminary strategies 摘要:山东及其沿海地区位于华北构造区东 部,其强震活动具有不均匀性。历史上发生 过郯庐大地震、渤海地震、菏泽大地震等破 坏性地震,随着经济的发展和人口密度的剧 增,山东及沿海地区的地震灾害风险逐渐增 高,本文重点研究了山东及沿海区域的地震 危险性以及地震灾害风险的特征,将山东地 区的人口密度及 GDP发展水平等因素引入到 灾害的承载体中,进而得到了山东地区的地 震灾害风险的空间分布情况。最后根据山东 地区的地震灾害风险特征,给出了减轻地震 灾害风险的若干建议。 关键词:地震危险性分析,地震灾害风 险分析,灾害承灾体,山东及沿海区域,初 步对策
{"title":"Risk Analysis of Earthquake Disasters in Shandong and Coastal Areas and Its Preliminary strategies","authors":"Sen Qiao, Z. Wen, Changlong Li, Qing Wu, Zongchao Li, Tiefei Li","doi":"10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.45","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.45","url":null,"abstract":"Shandong and its coastal areas are located in the eastern part of the North China tectonic region, and their strong seismic activities are uneven. There have been devastating earthquakes such as the Tanlu earthquake, the Bohai earthquake, and the Heze earthquake in history. With the development of the economy and the dramatic increase in population density, the earthquake disaster risk in Shandong and coastal areas has become increasingly high. This paper focuses on the characteristics of earthquake hazard analysis and earthquake disaster risk in Shandong and coastal areas, introduces population density and GDP development level of Shandong area into the disaster carrier, and then obtains the spatial distribution of earthquake disater risk in Shandong province. At last, according to the characteristics of earthquake disaster risk in Shandong, some suggestions to reduce earthquake disaster risk are given. Keywords—Earthquake Hazard Analysis; Earthquake Disaster Risk Analysis; Disaster carrier; Shandong and its coastal areas; preliminary strategies 摘要:山东及其沿海地区位于华北构造区东 部,其强震活动具有不均匀性。历史上发生 过郯庐大地震、渤海地震、菏泽大地震等破 坏性地震,随着经济的发展和人口密度的剧 增,山东及沿海地区的地震灾害风险逐渐增 高,本文重点研究了山东及沿海区域的地震 危险性以及地震灾害风险的特征,将山东地 区的人口密度及 GDP发展水平等因素引入到 灾害的承载体中,进而得到了山东地区的地 震灾害风险的空间分布情况。最后根据山东 地区的地震灾害风险特征,给出了减轻地震 灾害风险的若干建议。 关键词:地震危险性分析,地震灾害风 险分析,灾害承灾体,山东及沿海区域,初 步对策","PeriodicalId":142201,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Fourth Symposium on Disaster Risk Analysis and Management in Chinese Littoral Regions (DRAMCLR 2019)","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132007212","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-11-01DOI: 10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.13
Hua Jing, Huifang Hu, Xiaolei Chen, Qiqi Hou
Based on northward typhoon effecting Hebei data during1949-2018,key areas were Defining . The climatic features and impacts of typhoons entering the key areas were discussed. The results show that most of northward typhoon effecting Hebei occurred from late July to early August.The northward typhoon entering III district affected Hebei with the highest frequency, and rainstorm, gale and storm surge were easy to happen, Second -ly, it was II, which was to cause coastal and sea winds, When entering I, the TaihangMountains in the south had severe flood disasters. Starting from the disaster system theory, combined with the disaster data, the disaster-preventing environment and the disaster-bearing body information, the typhoon-storm, typhoongale, typhoon-storm surge three disaster chains were Built. And accord -ing to different disaster chains, corresponding disaster reduction measures were proposed, provided technical and decision support for the effective management of typhoon disaster risks. Keywords— northward typhoon, affecting key areas, disaster chain, disaster prevention 摘要—利用 1949—2018年影响河北的北上台风 资料,划定影响河北的台风关键区,对进入关键区 的北上台风的气候特征以及影响进行分析发现,影 响河北的北上台风大多发生 7 月下旬-8 月上旬;北 上台风进入III区影响河北的频率最高,暴雨、大风、 风暴潮均易发生;其次为II区,易引发沿海及海上 大风;进入I区时,西部太行山暴雨山洪灾害严重。 从灾害系统论出发,结合灾情资料、孕灾环境和承 灾体构建北上台风影响河北的台风—暴雨,台风— 大风、台风—风暴潮三种灾害链,并且针对灾害链 的不同,提出对应的断链减灾对策,为有效进行台 风灾害风险管理,提供技术支持和决策支撑。 关键词—北上台风,台风关键区,灾害链,减灾对
{"title":"Analysis of typhoon disaster chain and risk management in northward typhoon effecting Hebei","authors":"Hua Jing, Huifang Hu, Xiaolei Chen, Qiqi Hou","doi":"10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.13","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.13","url":null,"abstract":"Based on northward typhoon effecting Hebei data during1949-2018,key areas were Defining . The climatic features and impacts of typhoons entering the key areas were discussed. The results show that most of northward typhoon effecting Hebei occurred from late July to early August.The northward typhoon entering III district affected Hebei with the highest frequency, and rainstorm, gale and storm surge were easy to happen, Second -ly, it was II, which was to cause coastal and sea winds, When entering I, the TaihangMountains in the south had severe flood disasters. Starting from the disaster system theory, combined with the disaster data, the disaster-preventing environment and the disaster-bearing body information, the typhoon-storm, typhoongale, typhoon-storm surge three disaster chains were Built. And accord -ing to different disaster chains, corresponding disaster reduction measures were proposed, provided technical and decision support for the effective management of typhoon disaster risks. Keywords— northward typhoon, affecting key areas, disaster chain, disaster prevention 摘要—利用 1949—2018年影响河北的北上台风 资料,划定影响河北的台风关键区,对进入关键区 的北上台风的气候特征以及影响进行分析发现,影 响河北的北上台风大多发生 7 月下旬-8 月上旬;北 上台风进入III区影响河北的频率最高,暴雨、大风、 风暴潮均易发生;其次为II区,易引发沿海及海上 大风;进入I区时,西部太行山暴雨山洪灾害严重。 从灾害系统论出发,结合灾情资料、孕灾环境和承 灾体构建北上台风影响河北的台风—暴雨,台风— 大风、台风—风暴潮三种灾害链,并且针对灾害链 的不同,提出对应的断链减灾对策,为有效进行台 风灾害风险管理,提供技术支持和决策支撑。 关键词—北上台风,台风关键区,灾害链,减灾对","PeriodicalId":142201,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Fourth Symposium on Disaster Risk Analysis and Management in Chinese Littoral Regions (DRAMCLR 2019)","volume":"9 3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133376172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-11-01DOI: 10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.18
Liling Ju, H. Guo, Yun Xia, Zhizheng Mao
Based on the meteorological data in Qinhuangdao in latest 60 years and major mereorological disaster data in latest 10 years, the characteristics of climate change and occurrence of extreme severe weather in Qinhuangdao were analyzed using mathematical statistical method. To provide a climate basis for scientific planning of the development of industry, agriculture, tourism and cities, and to reduce risks and economic losses caused by meteorological disasters.The results show that the annual average temperature indicate a slow upward trend. The annual precipitation and the precipitation day show a decreasing trend, the interdecadal change of storm rainfall also shows a decreasing trend, while the change of heavy storm rainfall decreases first then increases. The annual variation of the average wind speed shows a decreasing trend, so as the annual gale day does. The studies of major meteorological disasters show that extreme weather events such as typhoon, heavy storm and extreme temperature occurred successively in Qinhuangdao in recent ten years, ranking a higher frequency than former time. As a result, the risk and impact of meteorological disasters have been aggravated. Since the extreme weather in recent ten years occurred more locally with higher intensity, the weather forecast is becoming more difficult and the meteorological risk is further enhanced. Keyword—climate change, extreme severe weather, meteorological risk 摘要—基于近 60 年秦皇岛的气象观测资料 和近 10 年的重大气象灾情数据,应用数学统 计方法,分析了气候变化特征和灾害性天气的 发生特点。为科学规划工农业、旅游业和城市 的发展提供气象气候依据,降低因气象灾害带
{"title":"The Characteristics of Climate Change in Latest 60 Years and Extreme Severe Weather in latest 10 Years in Qinhuangdao","authors":"Liling Ju, H. Guo, Yun Xia, Zhizheng Mao","doi":"10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.18","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.18","url":null,"abstract":"Based on the meteorological data in Qinhuangdao in latest 60 years and major mereorological disaster data in latest 10 years, the characteristics of climate change and occurrence of extreme severe weather in Qinhuangdao were analyzed using mathematical statistical method. To provide a climate basis for scientific planning of the development of industry, agriculture, tourism and cities, and to reduce risks and economic losses caused by meteorological disasters.The results show that the annual average temperature indicate a slow upward trend. The annual precipitation and the precipitation day show a decreasing trend, the interdecadal change of storm rainfall also shows a decreasing trend, while the change of heavy storm rainfall decreases first then increases. The annual variation of the average wind speed shows a decreasing trend, so as the annual gale day does. The studies of major meteorological disasters show that extreme weather events such as typhoon, heavy storm and extreme temperature occurred successively in Qinhuangdao in recent ten years, ranking a higher frequency than former time. As a result, the risk and impact of meteorological disasters have been aggravated. Since the extreme weather in recent ten years occurred more locally with higher intensity, the weather forecast is becoming more difficult and the meteorological risk is further enhanced. Keyword—climate change, extreme severe weather, meteorological risk 摘要—基于近 60 年秦皇岛的气象观测资料 和近 10 年的重大气象灾情数据,应用数学统 计方法,分析了气候变化特征和灾害性天气的 发生特点。为科学规划工农业、旅游业和城市 的发展提供气象气候依据,降低因气象灾害带","PeriodicalId":142201,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Fourth Symposium on Disaster Risk Analysis and Management in Chinese Littoral Regions (DRAMCLR 2019)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115320713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-11-01DOI: 10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.23
Tiefei Li, Hongshan Lu, Xueliang Chen, Zongchao Li
Based on the histogram and shear wave velocity data of 449 boreholes in the Jiaozhou Bay area of Qingdao, the empirical relationship between soil depth and shear wave velocity is calculated. The empirical relationship and sedimentary environment characteristics are analyzed. In connection with the soil layer, which has a long transport distance and a relatively small particle size, the shear wave velocity is relatively low. The empirical relationship between depth and shear wave velocity in the depth of 20m depth of the soil layer with obvious sedimentary features in the Jiaozhou Bay area of Qingdao is given. For the soil layer without obvious sedimentary features, the sedimentary features of the remaining strata of the borehole are used for classification, which improves the fitting degree of the empirical relationship and reduces the error, thus giving a method to estimat shear wave velocity of borehole using bore histogram with obvious sedimentary characteristics. Keywords—Sedimentary Characteristics , Shear Wave Velocity,Statistical Analysis 摘要—以青岛环胶州湾地区 449 个小区划钻孔的柱状图和 剪切波速数据为基础,统计了土层埋深与剪切波速之间的经验 关系特征,分析了该经验关系与沉积环境特征的联系,认为搬 运距离较长、颗粒相对较小的土层,其剪切波速相对较小。给 出了青岛环胶州湾地区沉积特征明显土层在 20m 深度范围内 深度与剪切波速的经验关系。对于沉积特征不明显的土层,使 用其所在钻孔的其余地层的沉积特征进行分类,提高了其经验 关系拟合度,减小了误差,从而给出了一种根据具有明显沉积 特征土层测井数据估算未测波速钻孔的等效剪切波速的方法。
{"title":"Study on the Relationship Between Sedimentary Characteristics of Shallow Soil Layer and Shear Wave Velocity in Qingdao","authors":"Tiefei Li, Hongshan Lu, Xueliang Chen, Zongchao Li","doi":"10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.23","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.23","url":null,"abstract":"Based on the histogram and shear wave velocity data of 449 boreholes in the Jiaozhou Bay area of Qingdao, the empirical relationship between soil depth and shear wave velocity is calculated. The empirical relationship and sedimentary environment characteristics are analyzed. In connection with the soil layer, which has a long transport distance and a relatively small particle size, the shear wave velocity is relatively low. The empirical relationship between depth and shear wave velocity in the depth of 20m depth of the soil layer with obvious sedimentary features in the Jiaozhou Bay area of Qingdao is given. For the soil layer without obvious sedimentary features, the sedimentary features of the remaining strata of the borehole are used for classification, which improves the fitting degree of the empirical relationship and reduces the error, thus giving a method to estimat shear wave velocity of borehole using bore histogram with obvious sedimentary characteristics. Keywords—Sedimentary Characteristics , Shear Wave Velocity,Statistical Analysis 摘要—以青岛环胶州湾地区 449 个小区划钻孔的柱状图和 剪切波速数据为基础,统计了土层埋深与剪切波速之间的经验 关系特征,分析了该经验关系与沉积环境特征的联系,认为搬 运距离较长、颗粒相对较小的土层,其剪切波速相对较小。给 出了青岛环胶州湾地区沉积特征明显土层在 20m 深度范围内 深度与剪切波速的经验关系。对于沉积特征不明显的土层,使 用其所在钻孔的其余地层的沉积特征进行分类,提高了其经验 关系拟合度,减小了误差,从而给出了一种根据具有明显沉积 特征土层测井数据估算未测波速钻孔的等效剪切波速的方法。","PeriodicalId":142201,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Fourth Symposium on Disaster Risk Analysis and Management in Chinese Littoral Regions (DRAMCLR 2019)","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125335504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-11-01DOI: 10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.10
Jiushao Hu, Hui Zhang, Xiao-ling Xie, hui-lin Wang
The 7.5 magnitude great earthquake occurred in Qiongshan of Hainan Province ,on July 13, 1605. it didn’t only destroy a large number of houses, but also caused a large area of land subsidence in the Dongzhaigang area where the epicenter was located, however, it didn’t completely sink to the bottom of the sea. The whole area in Dongzhai Harbor is gradually formed after the Qiongshan great earthquake because of the long-term land subsidence. The earthquake relics in the Harbor, especially the seabed village, were undoubtedly destroyed by the earthquake, but the submergence in the bottom of the sea should be caused by the long-term land subsidence after the great earthquake. When the Qiongshan great earthquake occurred, a large amount of seawater poured into the coastal area of Qiongzhou Strait in the north of Hainan Island, because the earthquake caused seabed collapse and landslide in the Qiongzhou Strait triggering a small tsunami. Keywords—Qiongshan Great Earthquake, Land subsidence, Tsunami 摘要—1605 年 7 月 13 日海南琼山发生 7.5 级大地震,不 仅使大量房屋毁于一旦,还造成震中所在的东寨港地区出现 大面积陆地陷落,但在当时并未完全沉没于海底。东寨港整 体是在琼山大地震后因陆地长期沉降逐步形成的,港湾内的 地震遗迹,尤其是“海底村庄”地震遗址,就其受破坏而言, 无疑是大地震所造成,但其沉没于海底,则应是大地震之后 的长期陆地沉降所致。在琼山大地震发生时有大量海水涌入 海南岛北部琼州海峡沿岸地区,是因为大地震造成了琼州海 峡内的海底崩塌和滑坡,引发了小规模的海啸。
{"title":"Analysis on the Disaster Caused by Qiongshan Earthquake in 1605","authors":"Jiushao Hu, Hui Zhang, Xiao-ling Xie, hui-lin Wang","doi":"10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.10","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.10","url":null,"abstract":"The 7.5 magnitude great earthquake occurred in Qiongshan of Hainan Province ,on July 13, 1605. it didn’t only destroy a large number of houses, but also caused a large area of land subsidence in the Dongzhaigang area where the epicenter was located, however, it didn’t completely sink to the bottom of the sea. The whole area in Dongzhai Harbor is gradually formed after the Qiongshan great earthquake because of the long-term land subsidence. The earthquake relics in the Harbor, especially the seabed village, were undoubtedly destroyed by the earthquake, but the submergence in the bottom of the sea should be caused by the long-term land subsidence after the great earthquake. When the Qiongshan great earthquake occurred, a large amount of seawater poured into the coastal area of Qiongzhou Strait in the north of Hainan Island, because the earthquake caused seabed collapse and landslide in the Qiongzhou Strait triggering a small tsunami. Keywords—Qiongshan Great Earthquake, Land subsidence, Tsunami 摘要—1605 年 7 月 13 日海南琼山发生 7.5 级大地震,不 仅使大量房屋毁于一旦,还造成震中所在的东寨港地区出现 大面积陆地陷落,但在当时并未完全沉没于海底。东寨港整 体是在琼山大地震后因陆地长期沉降逐步形成的,港湾内的 地震遗迹,尤其是“海底村庄”地震遗址,就其受破坏而言, 无疑是大地震所造成,但其沉没于海底,则应是大地震之后 的长期陆地沉降所致。在琼山大地震发生时有大量海水涌入 海南岛北部琼州海峡沿岸地区,是因为大地震造成了琼州海 峡内的海底崩塌和滑坡,引发了小规模的海啸。","PeriodicalId":142201,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Fourth Symposium on Disaster Risk Analysis and Management in Chinese Littoral Regions (DRAMCLR 2019)","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133503971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-11-01DOI: 10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.16
Hongmei Zhang, Jian He
—Based on the difference between big data enterprises and traditional enterprises, this paper first constructs two single financial risk early warning models: logistic regression model and BP neural network model, then introduces default probability of logistic regression model output into BP neural network model, and establishes a nonlinear combination based on BP neural network model. A new forecasting method is proposed, and an early warning model of financial crisis for large data enterprises is constructed and an empirical study is carried out. The results show that, compared with single model, the combined forecasting model has no significant improvement in the forecasting accuracy of financial early warning for large data enterprises, but the combined forecasting model is more stable. This provides a new idea for the financial risk early warning research of large data enterprises in China. Key words— combination forecasting model, large data enterprises,financial early warning 摘要—基于大数据企业与传统企业的差异,本文首先构建 了 logistic 回归模型和 BP 神经网络模型两个单一的财务风险 预警模型,然后将 logistic 回归模型输出的违约概率引入到 BP 神经网络模型中,建立了基于 BP 神经网络模型非线性组合 的预测新方法,构建了大数据企业财务危机预警模型并进行了 实证研究。结果表明,复合预测模型在对大数据企业财务预警 的预测精度上,与单一模型相比,预测精度没有显著提高,但 复合预测模型更具有稳定性。这为我国大数据企业财务风险预 警研究提供了新思路。 关键词—复合预测模型;大数据企业;财务预警
{"title":"Research on Financial Early Warning of Big Data Enterprises Based on Logistic Regression and BP Neural Network","authors":"Hongmei Zhang, Jian He","doi":"10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.16","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.16","url":null,"abstract":"—Based on the difference between big data enterprises and traditional enterprises, this paper first constructs two single financial risk early warning models: logistic regression model and BP neural network model, then introduces default probability of logistic regression model output into BP neural network model, and establishes a nonlinear combination based on BP neural network model. A new forecasting method is proposed, and an early warning model of financial crisis for large data enterprises is constructed and an empirical study is carried out. The results show that, compared with single model, the combined forecasting model has no significant improvement in the forecasting accuracy of financial early warning for large data enterprises, but the combined forecasting model is more stable. This provides a new idea for the financial risk early warning research of large data enterprises in China. Key words— combination forecasting model, large data enterprises,financial early warning 摘要—基于大数据企业与传统企业的差异,本文首先构建 了 logistic 回归模型和 BP 神经网络模型两个单一的财务风险 预警模型,然后将 logistic 回归模型输出的违约概率引入到 BP 神经网络模型中,建立了基于 BP 神经网络模型非线性组合 的预测新方法,构建了大数据企业财务危机预警模型并进行了 实证研究。结果表明,复合预测模型在对大数据企业财务预警 的预测精度上,与单一模型相比,预测精度没有显著提高,但 复合预测模型更具有稳定性。这为我国大数据企业财务风险预 警研究提供了新思路。 关键词—复合预测模型;大数据企业;财务预警","PeriodicalId":142201,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Fourth Symposium on Disaster Risk Analysis and Management in Chinese Littoral Regions (DRAMCLR 2019)","volume":"278 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116722061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-11-01DOI: 10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.35
Rundong Wang, Chongfu Huang
Risk communication refers to people exchange risk information and management opinions, which is an important part to effectively improve risk management. As a platform for risk communication, the questionnaire survey in Internet of intelligences should have the function of comprehensively sharing risk information and fully expressing opinions. This paper proposes a design process for risk communication questionnaire design by studying the development of questionnaire design. That is, (1) determine required information and survey object; (2) prepare the first draft of questionnaire; (3) determine the order of questions and the layout of questionnaires; (4) conduct a trial study and evaluate reliability and validity of the questionnaire. This paper also proposes the principles that questionnaire design should satisfy. That is, (a) word use principle; (b) question design principle, including question selectivity, question objectivity, easily answering of questions and options exhaustion; (c) verification principle; (d) normative principle. Keywords—risk communication; Internet of intelligence; questionnaire; questionnaire design; design principles 摘要—风险沟通,是人们交换风险信息和管理意见,有效 提高风险管理水平的一个重要环节。作为风险沟通的一个平 台,智联网中的问卷调查,应该具有全面分享风险信息、充 分表达意见的功能。本文将通过研究问卷设计的发展,对用 于风险沟通的问卷设计提出设计流程,即(1)确定所需信息 及目标调查对象;(2)准备问卷初稿;(3)确定问句顺序 以及问卷布局;(4)开展试调研并评价问卷的信度与效度。 提出了问卷设计应满足的原则,即(a)用词原则;(b)题 目设计原则,包括题目专一性、题目客观性、题目易答性和 选项穷尽性;(c)验证性原则;(d)规范性原则。 关键词—风险沟通,智联网,问卷调查,问卷设计,设计 原则
{"title":"Improvement measures of questionnaire design for risk communication in Internet of intelligences","authors":"Rundong Wang, Chongfu Huang","doi":"10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.35","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.35","url":null,"abstract":"Risk communication refers to people exchange risk information and management opinions, which is an important part to effectively improve risk management. As a platform for risk communication, the questionnaire survey in Internet of intelligences should have the function of comprehensively sharing risk information and fully expressing opinions. This paper proposes a design process for risk communication questionnaire design by studying the development of questionnaire design. That is, (1) determine required information and survey object; (2) prepare the first draft of questionnaire; (3) determine the order of questions and the layout of questionnaires; (4) conduct a trial study and evaluate reliability and validity of the questionnaire. This paper also proposes the principles that questionnaire design should satisfy. That is, (a) word use principle; (b) question design principle, including question selectivity, question objectivity, easily answering of questions and options exhaustion; (c) verification principle; (d) normative principle. Keywords—risk communication; Internet of intelligence; questionnaire; questionnaire design; design principles 摘要—风险沟通,是人们交换风险信息和管理意见,有效 提高风险管理水平的一个重要环节。作为风险沟通的一个平 台,智联网中的问卷调查,应该具有全面分享风险信息、充 分表达意见的功能。本文将通过研究问卷设计的发展,对用 于风险沟通的问卷设计提出设计流程,即(1)确定所需信息 及目标调查对象;(2)准备问卷初稿;(3)确定问句顺序 以及问卷布局;(4)开展试调研并评价问卷的信度与效度。 提出了问卷设计应满足的原则,即(a)用词原则;(b)题 目设计原则,包括题目专一性、题目客观性、题目易答性和 选项穷尽性;(c)验证性原则;(d)规范性原则。 关键词—风险沟通,智联网,问卷调查,问卷设计,设计 原则","PeriodicalId":142201,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Fourth Symposium on Disaster Risk Analysis and Management in Chinese Littoral Regions (DRAMCLR 2019)","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115500715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Probability distribution of wind speeds in the coast of Hebei","authors":"L. Shen, Linxue Long, Ming Yang, Yongqing Han, Xiaoliang Yang, Hongming Guo","doi":"10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.37","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.37","url":null,"abstract":"Lili Shen Linxue Long Ming Yang Hebei Meteorological Observatory Hebei Meteorological Observatory Hebei Provincial Climate Center Shijiazhuang,China Shijiazhuang,China Shijiazhuang,China Shenlily999@126.com Yongqing Han Xiaoliang Yang Hongming Guo Hebei Meteorological Observatory Hebei Meteorological Observatory Qinhuangdao Meteorological Observatory Ji nan,China Shijiazhuang,China Qinhuangdao,China","PeriodicalId":142201,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Fourth Symposium on Disaster Risk Analysis and Management in Chinese Littoral Regions (DRAMCLR 2019)","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121924975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-11-01DOI: 10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.6
Kewei Ma, Y. Meng, J. Wen
马客伟 1,孟彦如 2,温家洪 1 (1 上海师范大学环境与地理科学学院 上海 200234;2 枣庄学院旅游与资源环境学院 枣庄 277160) MKW667788@163.com Abstract: The ecological factors of Linyi City were extracted, using remote sensing and DEM data, and normalized to generate quality evaluation maps of natural ecological environment based on an integrated index method. The results show that the excellent, good, medium and poor classes of Linyi City's natural ecological environment account for 10.3%, 46.6%, 19.1% and 24.0% respectively. The overall natural ecological environment quality of Linyi City is at medium level, and it’s necessary to improve and protect the ecological environment. Corresponding suggestions of improvement and governance were given for ecological issues that existed in Linyi City.
{"title":"Quality Evaluation of Natural Ecological Environment in Linyi City based on RS","authors":"Kewei Ma, Y. Meng, J. Wen","doi":"10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/dramclr-19.2019.6","url":null,"abstract":"马客伟 1,孟彦如 2,温家洪 1 (1 上海师范大学环境与地理科学学院 上海 200234;2 枣庄学院旅游与资源环境学院 枣庄 277160) MKW667788@163.com Abstract: The ecological factors of Linyi City were extracted, using remote sensing and DEM data, and normalized to generate quality evaluation maps of natural ecological environment based on an integrated index method. The results show that the excellent, good, medium and poor classes of Linyi City's natural ecological environment account for 10.3%, 46.6%, 19.1% and 24.0% respectively. The overall natural ecological environment quality of Linyi City is at medium level, and it’s necessary to improve and protect the ecological environment. Corresponding suggestions of improvement and governance were given for ecological issues that existed in Linyi City.","PeriodicalId":142201,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Fourth Symposium on Disaster Risk Analysis and Management in Chinese Littoral Regions (DRAMCLR 2019)","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123123290","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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