中欧到2050年的可再生能源路线图:基于情景的技术经济分析

Subhash Kumar, R. Madlener
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引用次数: 5

摘要

欧盟制定了雄心勃勃的目标,即到2020年将温室气体排放量在1990年的基础上减少20%,到2050年减少80%,以实现环境和经济的可持续性。由于地缘政治原因,中欧可以在实现这些目标方面发挥关键作用。这项工作主要集中在中欧,即德国、奥地利、瑞士、匈牙利、波兰、斯洛文尼亚、斯洛伐克和捷克共和国。所有这些国家在如何发电和如何应对即将到来的环境挑战方面都有很大的不同。考虑到各国政府的长期规划和欧盟的指令,采用LEAP能源系统模型开发了四种情景。规划周期为2010年至2050年40年。模型结果表明,如果采用100%的可再生能源政策,有针对性地减少温室气体排放是可能的。对于像德国这样的发达国家来说,这个目标在2050年前是可以实现的。但对于波兰等中欧欠发达国家来说,实现100%可再生能源的目标需要更多时间,因为这些国家严重依赖化石燃料发电。
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Renewable energy roadmap for central Europe until 2050: A scenario based techno-economic analysis
European Union has set ambitious goals to reduce the GHG emissions by 20% until 2020 and 80% until 2050 compared to 1990 level for environmental and economic sustainability. Because of geopolitical reason, Central Europe can play a crucial role in achieving these targets. This work mainly focuses on Central Europe, namely, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Hungary, Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. All these countries have great differences on how they generate their electricity and different plans on how to tackle the upcoming environmental challenges. Considering the respective Government long-term plans and European Union directives, four scenarios are developed by using LEAP energy system model. The planning period is 40 years from 2010 to 2050. The model results suggest that targeted GHG emission reduction is possible if 100% renewable energy policy is adopted. In case of advanced countries, like Germany, the target is achievable until 2050. But for less developed countries in Central Europe, like Poland the target of 100% renewable takes more time because of their heavy dependency on fossil fueled power generation.
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