综合区域发展管理中的人口趋势预测方法

I. Bryzhan, V. Chevhanova, Оlesya Hryhoryeva, L. Svystun
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本文探讨了基于人口预测的乌克兰地区发展管理的创新方法。人口预测是为制定和实施中长期社会经济发展战略和区域发展公共管理提供信息的重要组成部分。需要强调的是,解决这一问题的方法应该是全面的。解决这一问题的现代选择之一是以借鉴欧洲关于综合发展的专门知识为基础的,这种综合发展的结果除了社会经济增长和环境改善外,还使欧洲城市居民的人数大大增加。详细的人口预测应该为综合地区规划的决策和发展提供依据。区域的综合发展,主要是城市区域的综合发展,涉及所有城市环境要素的发展:交通、经济、经济和社会基础设施等。因此,它一方面需要国家、区域和地方各级公共行政的纵向一体化,另一方面需要私营部门和公共社会的纵向一体化。在分析人口预测方法的基础上,提出了考虑净迁移指标的成分法、未来就业估计法和相似(相关)法相结合的区域人口预测方法。作者提出了自己的基于队列组方法(考虑净迁移指数)、未来就业估计和相似(相关)方法的区域人口预测方法。共同指数(出生率和死亡率、移徙)应成为关键组成部分。然而,影响它们未来变化的因素应该根据城市社会经济发展的趋势来单独定义。拟议的方法在制定规范和功能示范预测备选办法时考虑到能够显著改变人口预测的关键驱动因素的影响,并应成为地方当局和自治机构执行的城市发展社会经济战略计划的基础。理论规定以人口预测的实际数据支持波尔塔瓦镇(乌克兰)的综合发展战略的实施。作者认为,在以下条件下,人口预测是最优的:对城市进行详细的社会经济分析;识别优势和劣势,机会和威胁。根据所进行的分析和前景发展的目标,人们可以评估改善城市人口状况的机会。
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Approaches to forecasting demography trends in the management of integrated area development
The article is devoted to the innovative approach in the management of the area development for Ukraine based on demographic forecasting. Demographic forecasting is an essential element of informational supply for development and implementation of mid- and long-term social-economic development strategy and public administration of the area development. It is emphasized that the approach to solve this problem should be comprehensive. One of the modern options to settle the problem is based on borrowing European expertise on integrated development, which results, apart from social-economic growth and environment improvement, in significant increase in the number of European urban dwellers. Detailed demographic forecast should make a ground for decision-making and development of integrated area plans. Integrated development of areas, primarily urban ones, involves the development of all urban environment elements: transport, economy, economic and social infrastructure, etc. Therefore, it requires vertical integration, on one hand, of various public administration levels – national, regional, and local ones, and, on the other, of private sector and public society. Based on the analysis of demographic forecasting methods, the authors propose their own approach to area population forecasting, combining the component method that considers the net migration indices, the future employment estimating method and the similarity (correlation) method. The authors offer their own approach for area population forecasting based on a combination of cohort group method (considers the net migration indices), future employment estimate and similarity (correlation) methods. The common indices (birth and death rates, migration) should be the key components. However, the factors for their future changes should be defined individually based on the trends in the city's social-economic development. The proposed method takes into account the impact of the key drivers capable to change significantly the demographic forecasting when developing normative and functional demo-forecast options, and should make up the basis for social-economic strategic plans of urban development to be implemented by local authorities and self-government bodies. The theoretical provisions are supported with practical data of demographic forecasting for the implementation of integrated development strategy for the town of Poltava (Ukraine). Authors argue that demographic forecasting is optimal under the following conditions: detailed social-economic analysis of the city; and identification of strengths and weaknesses, and opportunities and threats. Based on the performed analysis and the objectives of perspective development, one can assess the opportunities for the improvement of demographic situation in the cities.
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