covid - 19对中美洲出口公司业绩的影响:首次审查

Hector Botello, I. G. Rincon
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摘要

新冠肺炎疫情对世界各地的公共卫生和实体经济都产生了重大影响。事实证明,此次新冠疫情引发的经济危机与以往的危机在紧迫性、对供需的负面冲击范围和程度等方面有所不同。位于中美洲的萨尔瓦多、洪都拉斯、危地马拉和尼加拉瓜等国家是拉丁美洲最贫穷的国家之一,自2020年3月以来实施了抗covid -19措施。比如限制人员流动,暂时关闭非必要的经济活动。因此,由于客户无法离开,家庭和企业正面临着疫情带来的经济衰退,并从整个供应链和需求端产生影响。在此分析中,将对出口企业的销售受到的平均影响进行估计。结果表明,所有公司都经历了经济活动的突然下降。永久关闭的出口公司占就业人数的6%,而国内市场上所有其他公司的这一比例为1%。这是对四个拉丁美洲国家缓解Covid-19措施对出口公司业绩影响的首次审查。该研究使用纵向数据库对公司条件和公司生存进行描述性分析。采用差异模型估计对出口企业销售的平均影响。控制变量是该公司的特点,以及该公司是否因新冠肺炎而暂时关闭。结果表明,所有公司都经历了经济活动的突然下降。永久关闭的出口公司占就业人数的6%,而国内市场上所有其他公司的这一比例为1%。估计模型表明,对于在此期间暂时关闭的企业,销售额进一步减少了8%。本文对文献的贡献体现在几个方面。首先,研究结果通过提供有关四个中美洲国家疫情的定量证据,对调查COVID-19经济影响的文章进行了补充。其次,纵向数据提供了一个独特的视角,可以了解公司如何应对大流行,因为它们允许我们控制一些变量,这些变量可以改变其他类型结构的分析。第三,我进一步研究了疫情对企业的影响如何因国家所有制结构和其他特征而异。通过观察到的后果,我们的研究结果提供的信息可以帮助我们考虑COVID - 19影响的更广泛的经济影响,以及恢复战略的设计。
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IMPACT OF COVID 19 ON THE PERFORMANCE OF CENTRAL AMERICAN EXPORTING COMPANIES: A FIRST REVIEW
The Covid-19 disease has had major consequences around the world for both public health and the real economy. This economic crisis generated by COVID-19 turns out to be different from previous crises in aspects such as the urgency, scope and magnitude of the negative shock on demand and supply. Countries such as El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala and Nicaragua, located in Central America, which are among the poorest in Latin America implemented anti-Covid-19 measures since March 2020. Such as restricting mobility and temporarily shutting down non-essential economic activities. As a result, households and businesses are facing an economic downturn due to the pandemic, with effects across the supply chain and from the demand side, because customers can't leave. For this analysis, the average impact on the sales of exporting companies will be estimated. The results indicate that all companies experienced a sudden drop-in economic activity. Permanently closed exporting firms accounted for 6% of employment, compared with 1% for all other firms in the domestic market. This is a first review of the effects of Covid-19 mitigation measures on the performance of exporting companies in four Latin American countries. The study uses a longitudinal database to perform a descriptive analysis of company conditions and company survival. A difference model is used to estimate the average impact on the sales of exporting companies. The control variables were the characteristics of the company, as well as whether it was temporarily closed due to Covid-19. The results indicate that all companies experienced a sudden drop-in economic activity. Permanently closed exporting firms accounted for 6% of employment, compared with 1% for all other firms in the domestic market. The estimation model indicates that for businesses that temporarily closed during this period, there was a further 8% reduction in sales. This article contributes to the literature in several aspects. First, the results complement articles investigating the economic impact of COVID-19 by providing quantitative evidence on the pandemic situation in four Central American countries. Second, longitudinal data provides a unique perspective on how companies have been reacting to the pandemic, as they allow us to control a few variables that can alter analysis in other types of structures. Third, I further examine how the impact of the pandemic on businesses varies by country based on ownership structure and other characteristics. With the observed consequences, our results provide information that can help us consider the broader economic implications of the impact of COVID 19, as well as the design of strategies for recovery.
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