面对非自然灾害

Gabriela Litre, P. Mesquita, Marcel Bursztyn, C. Saito
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引用次数: 0

摘要

气候学是近几十年来最先进的科学领域之一。科学技术发展相关因素的综合作用可以解释这一现象。卫星技术大大提高了数据的可用性和准确性。此外,计算机科学使得越来越复杂、一致和能够定性和定量地处理大型数据库模型的发展成为可能。结果一天比一天更可靠,允许场景再现,并发现更明智决策的趋势。Tellman等人最近写的一篇文章证明了这一进步,(2021)。该手稿提供了2000年至2018年间洪水地区的可用数据(分辨率为250米),确定了受影响面积为223万平方公里,全球直接受这些事件影响的人口为2.55亿至2.9亿。在2000年至2015年期间,这一数字增加了5800万至8600万,比其他研究估计的数字高出10倍。这些科学家创建的全球洪水数据库(Global Flood database)应该有助于在几种影响中确定最脆弱的地区和更需要采取适应措施的地区,特别是在气候变化方面。
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Facing not-so-natural disasters
Climatology is one of the most advanced scientific areas in recent decades. The confluence of factors related to scientific and technological evolution can explain it. Satellite technology has allowed a remarkable increase in data availability and accuracy. Besides, computer science has made possible the evolution of increasingly complex, consistent and capable of treating large databases models, both qualitatively and quantitatively. The results have been more reliable day after day, permitting scenarios’ reproduction and discovering trends for more informed decision making. Proof of this advance is a recent article written by Tellman et al., (2021). The manuscript presents available data from flooded areas between 2000-2018 (with a resolution of 250m), identifying an affected area of 2.23 million km2 and 255 to 290 million people directly impacted by these events worldwide. It represents an increase of 58 to 86 million people between 2000 and 2015, number ten times higher than estimated by other studies. The Global Flood Database1 created by these researchers should help identify, among several impacts, the most vulnerable areas and those with a greater need for adaptative measures, especially concerning climate change.
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