媒体、讲坛和民粹主义说服:来自考夫林神父的证据

Tianyi Wang
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引用次数: 36

摘要

新技术使有魅力的个人更容易影响他人。本文研究了美国历史上第一位民粹主义广播名人的政治影响。查尔斯·考夫林神父将民粹主义煽动、反犹太主义和同情法西斯主义混合在一起,创造了一个非常受欢迎的广播节目,在整个20世纪30年代吸引了数千万听众。我评估了接触考夫林神父的广播节目的短期和长期影响。利用地形因素导致的无线电信号强度的变化,我发现,在1936年的总统选举中,考夫林反罗斯福广播的曝光率每增加一个标准差,罗斯福的选票份额就会减少约两个百分点。在天主教徒较多的县,这种影响更大,并且在考夫林神父离开后仍然存在。另一种利用Coughlin在1932-1936年间对罗斯福态度转变的差异中的差异策略证实了结果。此外,我发现,在20世纪30年代后期,更多地接触到考夫林广播的地方,更有可能形成亲纳粹的德美外滩的地方分支,在二战期间出售的战争债券更少,从长远来看,对犹太人的负面情绪更多。
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Media, Pulpit, and Populist Persuasion: Evidence from Father Coughlin
New technologies make it easier for charismatic individuals to influence others. This paper studies the political impact of the first populist radio personality in American history. Father Charles Coughlin blended populist demagoguery, anti-Semitism, and fascist sympathies to create a hugely popular radio program that attracted tens of millions of listeners throughout the 1930s. I evaluate the short- and long-term impacts of exposure to Father Coughlin's radio program. Exploiting variation in the radio signal strength as a result of topographic factors, I find that a one standard deviation increase in exposure to Coughlin's anti-FDR broadcast reduced FDR's vote share by about two percentage points in the 1936 presidential election. Effects were larger in counties with more Catholics and persisted after Father Coughlin left the air. An alternative difference-in-differences strategy exploiting Coughlin's switch in attitude towards FDR during 1932-1936 confirms the results. Moreover, I find that places more exposed to Coughlin’s broadcast in the late 1930s were more likely to form a local branch of the pro-Nazi German-American Bund, sell fewer war bonds during WWII, and harbor more negative feelings towards Jews in the long run.
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