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Violent Conflict and the Strength of Civil Society 暴力冲突与公民社会的力量
Pub Date : 2021-09-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3925357
Colin O’Reilly
Leading theories of institutional and economic development emphasize the role of informal norms and the strength of civil society. Though informal norms and civil society are usually thought to change incrementally, exposure to violent conflict may shock these institutions. Well identified household level studies show that exposure to violent conflict may increase political participation, participation in social groups, involvement in community leadership, and contributions to public goods (Bauer et al. 2016). Evidence suggests that civil war may influence formal institutional quality at the country level, however, evidence that violence can change civil society or informal norms at the county level is sparse. In this study I apply the synthetic control method to model the impact of violent conflict on the strength of civil society at the country level. I focus on five countries in which existing micro-level evidence suggests that exposure to violence changes to behavior or informal norms: Sierra Leone, Burundi, Uganda, Nepal and Liberia. Results of the synthetic control analysis suggests that civil war is associated with stronger civil society in at least some contexts.
制度和经济发展的主要理论强调非正式规范的作用和公民社会的力量。虽然非正式规范和公民社会通常被认为是逐步变化的,但暴露于暴力冲突可能会对这些机构造成冲击。明确的家庭层面研究表明,接触暴力冲突可能会增加政治参与、社会团体参与、社区领导参与以及对公共产品的贡献(Bauer等人,2016年)。有证据表明,内战可能影响国家一级的正式体制质量,然而,证明暴力可以改变民间社会或县一级的非正式规范的证据很少。在本研究中,我运用综合控制方法来模拟暴力冲突对国家层面公民社会力量的影响。我重点关注五个国家,这些国家现有的微观证据表明,接触暴力会改变行为或非正式规范:塞拉利昂、布隆迪、乌干达、尼泊尔和利比里亚。综合控制分析的结果表明,至少在某些情况下,内战与更强大的公民社会有关。
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引用次数: 0
A Model of Embedded Autonomy and Asymmetric Information 嵌入式自治和信息不对称模型
Pub Date : 2021-08-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3906192
Weicheng Lyu, Nirvikar Singh
We model the concept of embedded autonomy, introduced by Peter Evens, as an interaction between bureaucrats and entrepreneurs, where bureaucrats must approve projects proposed by entrepreneurs. Entrepreneurs are better informed about their own projects than are bureaucrats, but bureaucrats can receive signals about project quality from entrepreneurs. If bureaucrats and entrepreneurs are more closely connected, say through social ties, they receive more informative signals. However, greater closeness will simultaneously relax the standards for project approval. Hence, there is a tradeoff between these two effects of social closeness, which helps capture the concept of embedded autonomy.
我们将Peter Evens引入的嵌入式自治概念建模为官僚和企业家之间的互动,其中官僚必须批准企业家提出的项目。企业家比官僚更了解他们自己的项目,但官僚可以从企业家那里得到关于项目质量的信号。如果官僚和企业家之间的联系更紧密,比如通过社会关系,他们就会收到更多信息信号。然而,更紧密的联系将同时放宽项目审批标准。因此,在社会亲密的这两种影响之间存在权衡,这有助于捕捉嵌入式自治的概念。
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引用次数: 0
Endogenous Networks and Legislative Activity 内生网络与立法活动
Pub Date : 2021-08-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2823338
N. Canen, M. Jackson, Francesco Trebbi
We develop a model of endogenous network formation as well as strategic interactions that take place on the resulting graph, and use it to measure social complementarities in the legislative process. Our model allows for partisan bias and homophily in the formation of relationships, which then impact legislative output. We use it to show how increased electoral competition can induce increased social behavior and the nonlinear effects of political polarization on legislative activity. We identify and structurally estimate our model using data on social and legislative efforts of members of each of the 105th-110th U.S. Congresses (1997-2009). We find large network effects in the form of complementarities between the efforts of politicians, both within and across parties. Although partisanship and preference differences between parties are significant drivers of socializing, our empirical evidence paints a less polarized picture of the informal connections of legislators than typically emerges from legislative votes alone.
我们开发了一个内生网络形成的模型,以及在结果图上发生的战略互动,并用它来衡量立法过程中的社会互补性。我们的模型允许党派偏见和同质关系的形成,然后影响立法产出。我们用它来展示选举竞争加剧如何导致社会行为的增加,以及政治两极分化对立法活动的非线性影响。我们利用第105届至第110届美国国会议员(1997-2009)的社会和立法努力数据来识别和结构性地估计我们的模型。我们发现,无论是在政党内部还是政党之间,政治家的努力之间都存在着巨大的网络效应。虽然政党之间的党派关系和偏好差异是社交的重要驱动因素,但我们的经验证据描绘了一幅立法者非正式联系的两极分化图景,而不仅仅是立法投票。
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引用次数: 8
Judicial Independence: Why Does De Facto Diverge from De Jure? 司法独立:事实与法理为何不同?
Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3897343
B. Hayo, Stefan Voigt
An independent judiciary has often been hailed as one of the most important aspects of the rule of law. Securing judicial independence (JI) via explicit constitutional rules seems straightforward and there is evidence that de jure and de facto JI are linked, at least in the long term. However, the realized degree of judicial independence often diverges significantly from the constitutionally guaranteed one. Based on theoretical conjectures and a worldwide panel dataset from 1950 to 2003, we find changes toward more parliamentary systems to be associated with a larger de jure-de facto gap, whereas the existence of procedures for amending the constitution are associated with a smaller gap. Relying on corruption levels as a proxy for the functionality of institutions, we find that higher corruption levels are associated with a wider gap between de jure and de facto JI.
司法独立经常被誉为法治最重要的方面之一。通过明确的宪法规则确保司法独立(JI)似乎很简单,有证据表明,法律上和事实上的JI是联系在一起的,至少从长远来看是这样。然而,司法独立的实现程度往往与宪法所保障的司法独立大相径庭。基于理论推测和1950年至2003年的全球面板数据集,我们发现更多议会制的变化与更大的法律-事实上的差距有关,而修改宪法程序的存在与较小的差距有关。根据腐败程度作为机构功能的代表,我们发现,更高的腐败程度与法律上和事实上的司法公正之间的更大差距有关。
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引用次数: 0
Does Ethnic Diversity Always Undermine Pro-Social Behavior? Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment 种族多样性是否总是破坏亲社会行为?来自实验室实验的证据
Pub Date : 2021-07-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3909255
T. Bao, B. Liang, Jiaoying Pei
A large body of literature concludes a negative association between ethnic diversity and pro-social behavior. Inspired by the works suggesting that the costly punishment would sustain the contribution level in public goods experiment, we compare the economic behavior of Mongolian- and Han-Chinese and investigate how ethnic diversity would affect contribution, punishment, and the marginal effect of punishment on contribution. We find that the association between ethnic diversity and pro-social behavior is not a simple negative relationship but rather depends on both cultural traits and ethnic fusion when we take punishment opportunity into consideration. Ethnic diversity may help promote contribution, alleviate the punishment level, and increase the efficiency of introducing a punishment mechanism in some circumstances.
大量文献得出结论,种族多样性和亲社会行为之间存在负相关关系。在公共物品实验中,以高代价的惩罚维持贡献水平的研究成果为启发,我们比较了蒙古族和汉族的经济行为,考察了民族多样性对贡献、惩罚以及惩罚对贡献的边际效应的影响。在考虑惩罚机会的情况下,我们发现民族多样性与亲社会行为之间的关系不是简单的负相关关系,而是取决于文化特质和民族融合。在某些情况下,种族多样性有助于促进贡献,减轻惩罚程度,并提高引入惩罚机制的效率。
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引用次数: 1
Forensic Finance and Budgeting Process Within the Public Financial Management (PFM) Framework in the African Context 非洲背景下公共财务管理(PFM)框架内的法医财务和预算程序
Pub Date : 2021-07-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3876370
Professor Kelly Kingsly
International development institutions frequently prescribe improving public financial management (PFM) as part of the response to lowering corruption levels in low- and middle-income countries. But to date, there has been little cross-country analysis on whether better PFM is associated with lower levels of corruption. This paper investigates the relationship between PFM, crime, and forensic sciences' role in curbing corruption levels during the budgeting process. The paper explores the public finance management (PFM) system in African countries, the PFM system and budget credibility, the PFM system, and fiscal outcomes. Further, the paper analyses how the PFM system can provide opportunities for corruption and how to strengthen the PFM as an anti-corruption strategy. In this regard, the paper brings forensic sciences and transparency in budget preparation, execution, and reporting. In this paper, the author presents areas of corruption during the budgeting process. It involves several stages, including Long-term planning at the political level, the annual budget formulation in the executive branch, debate and passage of the budget in parliament, implementation by various ministries and government agencies, and oversight and control by several institutions. This paper will explain a case study on corruption during the budgeting process or budget padding. On a positive note, the paper shows that if there is the political will to curb corruption in the budget process, three factors stand out as essential: transparency, objective criteria for allocating burdens and favouring legitimate decision-making processes. Finally, forensic sciences occupy the scene and its importance exis
国际发展机构经常将改善公共财政管理(PFM)作为降低中低收入国家腐败水平对策的一部分。但迄今为止,几乎没有关于更好的PFM是否与更低的腐败水平相关的跨国分析。本文探讨了在预算编制过程中,PFM、犯罪和法医学在遏制腐败水平方面的作用之间的关系。本文探讨了非洲国家的公共财政管理(PFM)制度、PFM制度与预算可信度、PFM制度与财政成果。在此基础上,本文进一步分析了PFM制度如何为腐败提供机会,以及如何加强PFM作为一种反腐败战略。在这方面,该文件在预算编制、执行和报告方面带来了法医学和透明度。在本文中,作者提出了在预算编制过程中的腐败领域。它涉及几个阶段,包括政治一级的长期规划、行政部门的年度预算编制、议会对预算的辩论和通过、各部委和政府机构的执行以及若干机构的监督和控制。本文将解释一个关于预算编制过程中的腐败或预算填充的案例研究。积极的一面是,本文表明,如果有遏制预算过程中的腐败的政治意愿,三个因素就显得至关重要:透明度、分配负担的客观标准和有利于合法决策过程。最后,法医学占有现场,其重要性是存在的
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引用次数: 0
Political Settlement Dynamics and the Emergence and Decline of Bureaucratic Pockets of Effectiveness in Ghana 加纳政治解决动态与官僚效能口袋的兴起与衰落
Pub Date : 2021-07-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3894493
A. Abdulai
This paper explores the factors that shape the performance trajectories of three relatively effective public organisations in Ghana, namely, the Ministry of Finance, the Bank of Ghana and the Ghana Revenue Authority. Drawing on an original investigation of organisational performance under the various political settlements that Ghana has experienced in the past few decades, it argues that although ‘pockets of effectiveness’ can emerge under different political settlement types and dynamics, such agencies are more likely to endure in concentrated political settlements than in contexts characterised by dispersed configurations of power. The main mechanism that links Ghana’s shifting political settlement and organisational performance is the quality of organisational leadership and its relationship to the political leadership of the day. Much depends on whether organisational leaders are (a) sufficiently politically loyal to be awarded the protection required to deliver on their mandate and (b) possess the political management skills required to navigate difficult political conditions. High levels of support (both technical and financial) from international development organisations and their privileged status as key nodes of economic governance have undoubtedly helped these organisations attain high levels of performance vis-à-vis the wider public bureaucracy. Nevertheless, the fact that the performance of these agencies has waxed and waned over time, despite international support and mandates being largely constant, suggests that the key to understanding their performance lies with political economy factors, with their effectiveness regularly undermined by the increasingly dispersed nature of power within Ghana’s political settlement and the resultant vulnerability of ruling elites.
本文探讨了影响加纳三个相对有效的公共组织(即财政部、加纳银行和加纳税务局)绩效轨迹的因素。根据对加纳在过去几十年中经历的各种政治解决方案下的组织绩效的原始调查,它认为,尽管在不同的政治解决方案类型和动态下可以出现“有效性口袋”,但这些机构在集中的政治解决方案中比在权力分散配置的背景下更有可能持续下去。加纳不断变化的政治解决方案和组织绩效之间的主要联系机制是组织领导的质量及其与当时政治领导的关系。这在很大程度上取决于组织领导人是否(a)在政治上足够忠诚,以获得履行其任务所需的保护,以及(b)拥有应对困难政治条件所需的政治管理技能。来自国际发展组织的高水平支持(包括技术和财政)以及它们作为经济治理关键节点的特权地位,无疑帮助这些组织在-à-vis更广泛的公共官僚机构中获得了高水平的绩效。然而,尽管国际支持和授权基本保持不变,但这些机构的表现随着时间的推移而起起落落,这一事实表明,理解其表现的关键在于政治经济因素,加纳政治解决方案中权力日益分散的性质以及由此导致的统治精英的脆弱性经常削弱了它们的有效性。
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引用次数: 2
Corruption and Democratic Governance in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic: Myths and Reality 尼日利亚第四共和国的腐败与民主治理:神话与现实
Pub Date : 2021-07-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3881675
Abdulyakeen Abdulrasheed
Corruption has continued to pose a formidable obstacle to the development and sustenance of the democracy project in Nigeria. For about twenty years now, the democratic journey has remained tortuous because of the reckless pursuits of power by the political class. The cancer of corruption devastatingly destroys the fabric of national existence in Nigeria. The paper examines the prevalence of corruption and its impacts in the process of democratic governance in Nigeria. It argues that corruption has affected democratic governance with serious consequences for the development of the nation. Such consequences include the diversion of resources; poor budget implementation, looting the public treasury and rigging elections, among others. The capture theory of politics is adopted to explain the nature and character of politicians in Nigeria, especially how they use political power or office to corruptly capture the state for their own pecuniary and particularistic interest, which runs contrary to national interest. The paper thus recommends the need to demonetize politics by making appointments into the parliament a part-time job; strengthening institutions and agencies of anti-corruption and democracy and intensifying awareness campaigns by especially Civil Society Organizations, with emphasis on oversight and monitoring the activities of the executive and legislative institutions in the country.
腐败继续对尼日利亚民主项目的发展和维持构成巨大障碍。大约20年来,由于政治阶层对权力的不计后果的追求,民主之路一直是曲折的。腐败的毒瘤毁灭性地破坏了尼日利亚国家生存的结构。本文考察了腐败的盛行及其在尼日利亚民主治理过程中的影响。它认为,腐败影响了民主治理,给国家的发展带来了严重后果。这些后果包括资源的转移;预算执行不力,掠夺国库,操纵选举等等。采用政治俘获理论来解释尼日利亚政治家的性质和性格,特别是他们如何利用政治权力或职位来腐败地俘获国家,以满足自己的金钱和特殊利益,这与国家利益背道而驰。因此,该报告建议,有必要通过将议会任命作为兼职工作来废除政治;加强反腐败和民主机构,加强特别是民间社会组织的宣传运动,重点是监督和监测该国行政和立法机构的活动。
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引用次数: 0
Left Turn Ahead: Surveying Attitudes of Young People Towards Capitalism and Socialism 左转弯:调查年轻人对资本主义和社会主义的态度
Pub Date : 2021-07-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3893595
K. Niemietz
Millennials have long been portrayed as a politically disengaged and apathetic generation. In recent years, however, that portrayal has changed drastically. The rise of mass movements such as Black Lives Matter, Extinction Rebellion, the ‘Greta Thunberg movement’ and Momentum, together with the ‘campus culture wars’, have turned perceptions upside down. Today, Millennials are much more commonly described as a hyper-politicised generation, which embraces ‘woke’, progressive and anti-capitalist ideas. This is increasingly extended to the first cohorts of the subsequent generation, ‘Generation Z’. Surveys show that there is a lot of truth in the cliché of the ‘woke socialist Millennial’. Younger people really do quite consistently express hostility to capitalism, and positive views of socialist alternatives of some sort. For example, around 40 per cent of Millennials claim to have a favourable opinion of socialism and a similar proportion agree with the statement that ‘communism could have worked if it had been better executed’. For supporters of the market economy, this should be a cause for concern, but so far they have mostly chosen to ignore this phenomenon, or dismiss it with phrases such as ‘Young people have always gone through a juvenile socialist phase’ or ‘They will grow out of it’. But this is simply not borne out by the data. There are no detectable differences between the economic attitudes of people in their late teens and people in their early 40s. It is no longer true that people ‘grow out’ of socialist ideas as they get older. To fill in some of the remaining gaps in the literature, the IEA has commissioned an extensive survey into the economic attitudes of Millennials and ‘Zoomers’ (i.e. Generation Z), which broadly confirms and deepens the impression we get from previous surveys. For example, 67 per cent of younger people say they would like to live in a socialist economic system. Young people associate ‘socialism’ predominantly with positive terms, such as ‘workers’, ‘public’, ‘equal’ and ‘fair’. Very few associate it with ‘failure’ and virtually nobody associates it with Venezuela, the erstwhile showcase of ‘21st Century Socialism’. Capitalism, meanwhile, is predominantly associated with terms such as ‘exploitative’, ‘unfair’, ‘the rich’ and ‘corporations’. 75 per cent of young people agree with the assertion that climate change is a specifically capitalist problem (as opposed to a side-effect of industrial production that would occur in any economic system). 71 per cent agree with the assertion that capitalism fuels racism. 73 per cent agree that it fuels selfishness, greed, and materialism, while a socialist system would promote solidarity, compassion and cooperation. 78 per cent of young people blame capitalism (not NIMBYism and supply-side restrictions) for Britain’s housing crisis. Consequently, 78 per cent also believe that solving it requires large-scale government intervention, through measures such as rent controls and
长期以来,千禧一代一直被描绘成不参与政治、冷漠的一代。然而,近年来,这种描述发生了巨大变化。“黑人的命也重要”、“反抗灭绝”、“格蕾塔·桑伯格运动”和“动量”等群众运动的兴起,以及“校园文化战争”,使人们的观念发生了翻天覆地的变化。如今,千禧一代更常被描述为高度政治化的一代,他们信奉“觉醒”、进步和反资本主义的思想。这种情况越来越多地延伸到下一代的第一批人,即“Z世代”。调查显示,“觉醒的社会主义千禧一代”的陈词滥调有很多道理。年轻人确实一贯表达对资本主义的敌意,以及对某种社会主义替代方案的积极看法。例如,大约40%的千禧一代声称对社会主义持赞成态度,类似比例的人同意“如果执行得更好,共产主义可能会成功”的说法。对于市场经济的支持者来说,这应该是一个值得关注的问题,但到目前为止,他们大多选择忽视这一现象,或者用诸如“年轻人总是经历青少年社会主义阶段”或“他们会长大的”之类的短语来打发它。但这并没有得到数据的证实。青少年和40岁出头的人在经济态度上没有明显的差异。随着年龄的增长,人们不再会对社会主义观念“生疏”。为了填补文献中的一些空白,国际能源署委托对千禧一代和“Z世代”(即Z世代)的经济态度进行了广泛的调查,广泛证实并加深了我们从以前的调查中得到的印象。例如,67%的年轻人表示他们希望生活在社会主义经济体制中。年轻人主要把“社会主义”与积极的词汇联系在一起,比如“工人”、“公共”、“平等”和“公平”。很少有人把它和“失败”联系在一起,几乎没有人把它和委内瑞拉联系在一起,委内瑞拉曾经是“21世纪社会主义”的样板。与此同时,资本主义主要与“剥削”、“不公平”、“富人”和“公司”等术语联系在一起。75%的年轻人认为,气候变化是一个具体的资本主义问题(而不是任何经济体系都会出现的工业生产的副作用)。71%的人同意资本主义助长种族主义的说法。73%的人认为社会主义助长了自私、贪婪和物质主义,而社会主义制度会促进团结、同情和合作。78%的年轻人将英国的住房危机归咎于资本主义(而不是邻避主义和供应方面的限制)。因此,78%的受访者还认为,解决这个问题需要政府通过租金管制和公共住房等措施进行大规模干预。72%的年轻人支持将能源、水和铁路等行业(再)国有化。72%的人还认为,私营部门的参与将使NHS面临风险。75%的年轻人同意“社会主义是一个好主意,但它在过去失败了,因为它做得不好(例如在委内瑞拉)”的说法。“真正的社会主义从未被尝试过”的陈词滥调不仅是陈词滥调,也是千禧一代和千禧一代的主流观点。这一切并不意味着英国到处都是年轻的马克思列宁主义者。社会主义思想广泛传播,但传播也很薄弱。当看到一个反资本主义的声明时,绝大多数年轻人都同意(在我们的调查中,每一个反资本主义的声明都是如此,无一例外)。然而,当面对一个完全相反的亲资本主义的陈述时,我们常常也会发现对该陈述的净赞同。这表明,当年轻人接受社会主义观点时,这往往不是一个根深蒂固的信念。这可能只是他们最熟悉的论点。我们的结果并不意味着资本主义的支持者应该认输,承认在思想之战中失败,仅仅接受未来属于社会主义。但它确实表明,他们应该比现在更认真地对待“千禧社会主义”。他们应该将其视为挑战并参与其中,而不是忽视它或否认它的存在。
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引用次数: 2
Money Down the Drain: Corruption and Access to Water in Sub-Saharan Africa 《金钱流失:撒哈拉以南非洲的腐败与用水》
Pub Date : 2021-06-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3866657
Michael Breen, Robert Gillanders
Previous studies have documented evidence of endemic corruption in the water and sanitation sector but only a few studies have examined the link between corruption and access to water. Drawing on data from the Afrobarometer surveys, which record 45,000 households’ access to water across sub-Saharan Africa, we find that corruption is associated with a lower likelihood of access to water for household purposes. We show that corruption in the utilities sector is driving this result and that corruption in other contexts is not associated with access to water. While an individual who has paid a bribe for utilities is more likely to have a water access point, the local incidence of utilities corruption strongly predicts that the household will not have enough clean water for home use. Individual acts of bribery, while associated with increased nominal connectivity to a water network, are not associated with greater access in reality. We conclude that corruption distorts decision making and resource allocation in the water sector, leaving households worse off. Our findings underline the importance of targeted efforts to control corruption in public utilities, in order to guarantee access to clean water for all.
以前的研究记录了水和卫生部门普遍腐败的证据,但只有少数研究审查了腐败与获得水之间的联系。根据非洲晴雨表的调查数据,我们发现腐败与家庭用水的可能性较低有关。该调查记录了撒哈拉以南非洲地区4.5万户家庭的用水情况。我们表明,公用事业部门的腐败导致了这一结果,而其他情况下的腐败与获取水资源无关。虽然为公用事业行贿的个人更有可能拥有取水点,但当地公用事业腐败的发生率强烈预示着该家庭将没有足够的清洁用水供家庭使用。个人贿赂行为虽然与名义上与供水网络的连接增加有关,但实际上与更大的接入无关。我们的结论是,腐败扭曲了水务部门的决策和资源配置,使家庭境况恶化。我们的研究结果强调了有针对性地控制公用事业腐败的重要性,以确保所有人都能获得清洁用水。
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引用次数: 1
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