D. Bailey, J. Borwein, A. Salehipour, Marcos M. López de Prado
{"title":"金融专家能做出可靠的预测吗?","authors":"D. Bailey, J. Borwein, A. Salehipour, Marcos M. López de Prado","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3339657","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Many investors rely on market experts and forecasters when making investment decisions, such as when to buy or sell securities. Ranking and grading market forecasters provide investors with metrics on which they may choose forecasters with the best record of accuracy for their particular market exposure. This study develops a novel ranking methodology to rank the market forecaster. In particular, we distinguish forecasts by their specificity, rather than considering all predictions and forecasts equally important, and we also analyze the impact of the number of forecasts made by a particular forecaster. We have applied our methodology on a dataset including 6,627 forecasts made by 68 forecasters.","PeriodicalId":255992,"journal":{"name":"Consumer Financial Fraud eJournal","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2018-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Do Financial Gurus Produce Reliable Forecasts?\",\"authors\":\"D. Bailey, J. Borwein, A. Salehipour, Marcos M. López de Prado\",\"doi\":\"10.2139/ssrn.3339657\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Many investors rely on market experts and forecasters when making investment decisions, such as when to buy or sell securities. Ranking and grading market forecasters provide investors with metrics on which they may choose forecasters with the best record of accuracy for their particular market exposure. This study develops a novel ranking methodology to rank the market forecaster. In particular, we distinguish forecasts by their specificity, rather than considering all predictions and forecasts equally important, and we also analyze the impact of the number of forecasts made by a particular forecaster. We have applied our methodology on a dataset including 6,627 forecasts made by 68 forecasters.\",\"PeriodicalId\":255992,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Consumer Financial Fraud eJournal\",\"volume\":\"25 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2018-02-28\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Consumer Financial Fraud eJournal\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3339657\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Consumer Financial Fraud eJournal","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3339657","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Many investors rely on market experts and forecasters when making investment decisions, such as when to buy or sell securities. Ranking and grading market forecasters provide investors with metrics on which they may choose forecasters with the best record of accuracy for their particular market exposure. This study develops a novel ranking methodology to rank the market forecaster. In particular, we distinguish forecasts by their specificity, rather than considering all predictions and forecasts equally important, and we also analyze the impact of the number of forecasts made by a particular forecaster. We have applied our methodology on a dataset including 6,627 forecasts made by 68 forecasters.