From game theory to complexity science and agent-based modeling in world politics

This paper discusses the transition from a game theoretic to a complexity view of world politics with an emphasis on global environmental issues. Game theory is a traditional tool of analysis in international relations and relevant game theoretic models include the prisoner's dilemma, and the North-South divide. The complexity approach to world politics, taking place on a highly interconnected global network of actors organized as agents and meta-agents, constitutes a multiplayer extension of game theory that may help with understanding and anticipating global events. Technology, interconnections, feedback and individual empowerment are important characteristics of the complex world of global politics. Evolution and adaptation are related to the concept of fitness of the actors in world politics. Many events of world politics constitute emergent phenomena of the complex international community of state and non-state actors and may be simulated with agent-based modeling, arguably the most prevalent method of simulating complex systems. Characteristic research works from social science, political science, defense, world politics and the global environment that utilize agent-based simulation, are reviewed. The paper is concluded with a recapping of the main points, suggestions and caveats for future directions.