广东省能源消费对GDP影响的实证研究

F. Liu, Haiping Liang
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摘要

广东的能源消费与GDP密切相关。本文利用2002 - 2021年广东省GDP和能源消费的时间序列数据,运用单位根检验、协整分析、多重共线性检验与校正、序列相关检验与校正等方法,研究终端能源各成分消费对广东省GDP的影响。结果表明:(1)煤炭消费对数(LnX1)和石油消费对数(LnX2)在5%显著水平下对GDP对数(LnGDP)无显著影响;(2)用电量对数(LnX3)和其他能耗对数(LnX4)在5%显著水平上对GDP对数(LnGDP)产生显著影响,平均而言,用电量和其他能耗每增加1%,广东GDP将分别增长0.698%和0.507%;(3)煤炭消费对数(LnX1)和石油消费对数(LnX2)在5%显著性水平下对当期GDP对数(LnGDP)无显著影响,但具有显著的正影响,滞后1年。根据这些发现,提出了政策建议。
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Empirical Study on the Impact of Energy Consumption on GDP in Guangdong Province
: Energy consumption and GDP in Guangdong are closely related. This paper uses time series data of Guangdong's GDP and energy consumption from 2002 to 2021, and applies methods such as unit root test, cointegration analysis, multicollinearity test and correction, and sequence correlation test and correction to study the impact of the consumption of various components of terminal energy on Guangdong's GDP. The results show that (1) the logarithm of coal consumption (LnX1) and the logarithm of oil consumption (LnX2) have no significant impact on the logarithm of GDP (LnGDP) at the 5% significance level; (2) the logarithm of electricity consumption (LnX3) and the logarithm of other energy consumption (LnX4) have a significant impact on the logarithm of GDP (LnGDP) at the 5% significance level, and on average, an increase of 1% in electricity consumption and other energy consumption will increase Guangdong's GDP by 0.698% and 0.507%, respectively; (3) the logarithm of coal consumption (LnX1) and the logarithm of oil consumption (LnX2) have no significant impact on the logarithm of GDP (LnGDP) in the current period at the 5% significance level, but have a significant positive impact with a lag of one year. Based on these findings, policy recommendations are proposed.
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