Ageing, Education and Health in Portugal: prospective from the 19th to the 21st century

he first aim of this study is to present the Portuguese mortality model from a long chronological perspective and discuss the role of educational level as a predictor of health status. By the end of the 19th century, when social and economic changes took place, the short and unstable life cycle model was replaced with a long and stable one, with major changes from 1970’s onwards. Today Portugal is a country with low mortality and fertility rates. Having presented this changing process and its consequences to the population’s age structure, we will analyze the extent to which future changes in the composition of the population by sex, age and educational level will affect the average health status. It is an important issue, as we know that the ageing phenomena of the Portuguese population will continue and that health care needs will increase significantly in coming decades, although with regional differences.1 Simultaneously, Portugal will experience significant changes in the educational level of its population. Several studies have reported higher morbidity and mortality levels on people with lower educational level. Will the effects of ageing be counterbalanced by the anticipated rise in Portuguese educational levels? T