条件概率规则在量子理论中是有效的[评Gelman & Yao的“贝叶斯统计中的漏洞”]

PierGianLuca Porta-Mana
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在最近的一份手稿中,Gelman和Yao(2020)声称“条件概率的通常规则在量子领域失效”,并且“概率理论不正确(量子物理学)”,并声称用量子双缝实验的例子来支持这些陈述。本笔记回顾了量子理论中的一些相关文献,并表明:(i) Gelman & Yao的陈述是错误的;事实上,量子例子证实了概率论的规则;(ii)在量子例子中发现的特殊不等式也可以出现在非常非量子的例子中,例如从瓮中抽出;因此,在这个问题上,量子论没有什么特别之处。引用的手稿中关于量子理论的一些错误或不精确的陈述也被纠正了。
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The rule of conditional probability is valid in quantum theory [Comment on Gelman & Yao's "Holes in Bayesian statistics"]
In a recent manuscript, Gelman & Yao (2020) claim that "the usual rules of conditional probability fail in the quantum realm" and that "probability theory isn't true (quantum physics)" and purport to support these statements with the example of a quantum double-slit experiment. The present note recalls some relevant literature in quantum theory and shows that (i) Gelman & Yao's statements are false; in fact, the quantum example confirms the rules of probability theory; (ii) the particular inequality found in the quantum example can be shown to appear also in very non-quantum examples, such as drawing from an urn; thus there is nothing peculiar to quantum theory in this matter. A couple of wrong or imprecise statements about quantum theory in the cited manuscript are also corrected.
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