基于样本量的加权回归预测方法研究

Ning Hu, Fachao Li, Chenxia Jin
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引用次数: 0

摘要

回归分析是一种确定可控变量与预测因子期望值之间相关性的预测方法。值得注意的是,现实中往往无法得到完整的数据进行研究,这使得回归分析的结果受到影响,虽然经典回归模型的研究较多,但大多是以样本数据的完整性、数据的完全可靠为基本前提,而没有考虑到样本数据可靠性问题导致的不完整样本的可靠程度影响回归模型结果的性质。本文以统计理论为基础。分析了样本量对预测结果的影响,给出了基于样本量的样本可信度度量策略,提出了基于均值的样本聚集方法,建立了基于样本量的加权回归模型。然后,结合具体案例与常用回归方法进行对比分析。结果表明,该方法具有良好的可解释性和可操作性,在一定程度上丰富了现有的回归方法。
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Research on the Prediction Method of Weighted Regression Based on Sample Size
Regression analysis is a prediction method to determine the dependence between controllable variables and expected values of predictors. It is worth noting that the reality often cannot get the complete data in the study, this makes the regression analysis result is affected, although the study of classical regression model is more, but most are based on sample data integrity, data completely reliable as the basic premise, and does not take into account the sample data reliability problems caused by incomplete samples reliable degree affect the nature of the result of the regression model. This paper is based on statistical theory. The effect of sample size on prediction results is analyzed, the measurement strategy of sample credibility based on sample size is given, a sample aggregation method based on mean value is proposed, a weighted regression model based on sample size is established. Then, the comparative analysis is carried out by combining the concrete case with the common regression method. The results show that this method has good interpretability and maneuverability, and enriches the existing regression methods to some extent.
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