Extreme value statistics to the prediction of solar flare proton effects on solar cells

A new model for predicting the fluence of solar proton events, based on extreme value theory, is compared to previous models and used to predict silicon solar cell damage as a function of mission duration for satellites in geosynchronous orbits. The model shows consistency with the JPL 1991 model for periods of time equal to 7 years or less. This is the time span of interest to designers of Earth orbiting satellites. However, for longer missions the forecasts of the new model differ from that of JPL 1991. The new model forecasts a higher probability that very large events will occur during long duration interplanetary missions.