侨民债券的实证分析

Þule Akkoyunlu, Max Stern
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引用次数: 7

摘要

本研究首次从理论上和实证上对1951年至2008年间八个发展中国家(孟加拉国、埃塞俄比亚、加纳、印度、黎巴嫩、巴基斯坦、菲律宾和斯里兰卡)和一个发达国家(以色列)的侨民债券的决定因素进行了调查。实证结果与理论模型的预测一致。最有力的变量是需求侧的亲密度指标和主权评级。利差并不大,说明侨民债券与普通投资不同。良好的治理和战争也是侨民债券重要的需求方决定因素。在供给侧因素中;外国直接投资、官方发展援助、外汇、通货膨胀、外债和汇款在很大程度上决定了散居侨民债券的发行。最重要的是,本研究能够预测未来发行散居债券最有希望的候选国家。
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An empirical analysis of Diaspora bonds
This study is the first to investigate theoretically and empirically the determinants of Diaspora Bonds for eight developing countries (Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Ghana, India, Lebanon, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Sri-Lanka) and one developed country - Israel for the period 1951 and 2008. Empirical results are consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model. The most robust variables are the closeness indicator and the sovereign rating, both on the demand-side. The spread is not significant, suggesting Diaspora Bonds differ from normal investments. Good governance and wars are also important demand-side determinants of Diaspora Bonds. Among the supply-side factors; FDI, ODA, foreign exchange, inflation, external debt and remittances significantly determine the issue of Diaspora Bonds. Most importantly, this study is able to make predictions of the most promising candidate countries in issuing Diaspora Bonds in the future.
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