中国自然灾害与地震巨灾保险研究述评

Jian Zhu
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摘要

为了解决西太平洋沿海地区日益严重的自然灾害威胁,提出了一种新的全生命周期成本分析方法来评估中国未来可能遭受的自然灾害损失。同时,本研究也为地震巨灾保险在中国的推广和建立奠定了基础。以钢筋混凝土建筑和工业建筑为例,基于随机方法模型的地震损失估计是研究的重点。首次采用基于装配的混合易损性框架进行建模和地震损失估计。在给定的随机运动下,与结构响应相关的结构损伤和非结构损伤采用非线性增量时程分析方法进行了详细的估计。通过适当的概率分布来描述全寿命周期成本研究中各参数的不确定性,达到量化全寿命周期成本期望值的目的。此外,本文还基于概率地震风险评估,给出了中国高烈度地区两类典型建筑在其使用寿命期间的预期地震巨灾保险费(CIP)。
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Interview of Natural Hazards and Seismic Catastrophe Insurance Research in China
In order to solve the increasingly serious threat of natural disasters in western Pacific coastal region, a new life-cycle cost analysis method is presented to evalu-ated the possible loss of natural disasters in the future in China. At the same time the research also lays a foundation for the promotion and establishment of earthquake catastrophe insurance in China. The estimation of earthquake losses for example RC buildings and industrial buildings based stochastic method models is the focus of the research. An assembly-based mixture fragility framework is firstly adopted for modeling and seismic loss estimation. The damage of the structural and non-structural which connected into response of the structures under given stochastic motions use nonlinear incremental time-history analysis to estimate in a detailed. Description of the uncertainty of all parameters in life-cycle cost (LCC) research through appropriate probability distributions to reach quantification of the LCC expected value. Moreover, the study is also to give the expected seismic catastrophe insurance premium (CIP) for two types of typical buildings in high seismic intensity areas of China based probabilistic seismic risk assessment in its service lifetime.
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