基于数学模型的北京市机动车限行影响研究

Hao-min Zhang, Bo-ying Shi
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摘要

为了研究北京市机动车保有量的有限性,特别是“摇号”政策对北京市机动车保有量增长的影响,本文建立了一个数学模型,对北京市目前的机动车保有量增长进行模拟,并将增长模型与Logistic增长模型进行比较,看看利用机动车保有量的有限性和机动车新政对北京市机动车保有量的快速增长是否有效。因此,该模型表明,北京的汽车限制以及北京的“摇号”政策是帮助减缓北京汽车快速增长的有效途径。在此基础上,提出了改善交通问题的五点建议。
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A Study of the Impact of Limitation of the Amount of Vehicles in Beijing Based on Mathematic Modeling
In order to study the limitation of the amount of vehicles in Beijing and especially the impact of "Lottery" policy for controlling the car growth in Beijing, a mathematic model was built to simulate the current car growth in Beijing and compare the growth model with the Logistic growth model to see if it is effective to control the rapid growth of vehicles in Beijing by using these limitations and the new car policy. As a result, the model shows that the limitation of cars in Beijing as well as the "Lottery" policy in Beijing is effective ways to help slow down the fast growth of cars in Beijing. Moreover, based on the model in this paper, five suggestions to improve transport problems were given.
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