回顾贸易开放、国内投资和经济增长关系:对中东和北非地区的当代政策影响

Stephen Taiwo Onifade, Abdul Qahar Khatir, A. Ay, Murat Canitez
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引用次数: 10

摘要

本研究调查了贸易开放对选定的中东和北非(MENA)国家经济表现的影响,同时将国内投资因素纳入实证分析,以适应近年来各国之间贸易自由化的动态情绪。该研究包括在完全修正最小二乘(FMOLS)和动态普通最小二乘(DOLS)回归技术框架内对选定国家的一组观测结果进行实证分析。实证结果证实了各变量之间存在着长期的关系。然而,尽管国内投资和劳动力规模对这些国家的经济增长具有显著的正向影响,但在研究期间,我们发现贸易开放对经济增长具有负向影响。因此,建议采取切实措施,引导对提高国内经济劳动生产率和生产价值链至关重要的投资,以阻止或尽量减少原材料初级商品的出口。此外,应采取适当措施,改善总体营商环境,消除贸易障碍,加强区域各国之间的机制,以便在日益全球化的世界中利用贸易带来的好处。
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Reviewing Trade Openness, Domestic Investment, and Economic Growth Nexus: Contemporary Policy Implications for the MENA region
This study investigates the impact of trade openness on the economic performances of selected Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries while incorporating elements of domestic investment into the empirical analysis in the wake of dynamic sentiments for trade liberalization among nations in recent times. The study covers an empirical analysis of a panel of observations from the selected countries within the framework of the Fully Modified Least Square (FMOLS), and the Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS) regression techniques. The empirical results affirm the existence of a long-run relationship among the variables. However, while domestic investment and the size of the labor force significantly impact economic growth in the positive direction among these countries, trade openness was found to be negatively impacting on growth for the period of the study. It is therefore recommended that cogent effort should be directed towards investments that are crucial for the improvement of labor productivity and production value chains in the domestic economy to dissuade or minimize the rate of export of raw primary commodities. Also, adequate steps should be taken to improve the overall business environment, remove trade impediments, and strengthen institutions among the countries in the region to harness the benefits of trade in our increasingly globalized world.
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