土耳其保险业与经济增长关系的实证研究

Şerife Merve Koşaroğlu
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摘要

保险通过对人们的潜在损失提供补偿来进行风险管理。保险业作为金融业的重要组成部分,可以对经济增长产生积极影响。这种效应主要是由于保险的可靠性和稳定性、私人储蓄和金融部门的资源增加特性。近年来,保险业与经济增长的关系研究受到了人们的重视。土耳其在经济增长方面具有巨大潜力,但对保险与增长之间关系的研究有限,因为保险活动刚刚开始扩大。因此,本研究的目的是填补这一空白,并探讨保险业与土耳其经济增长之间的关系。为此,本文采用Pesaran et al. (2001) ARDL方法,利用1983-2020年的年度数据,分析了土耳其保费、渗透率与经济增长之间的关系。边界检验结果表明,各变量之间存在着长期的关系。根据ARDL的结果,虽然从长期来看,总保费与经济增长之间存在显著的关系,但渗透率与经济增长之间没有显著的关系。
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AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE INSURANCE INDUSTRY AND THE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY
Insurance provides risk management by providing compensation for potential losses of people. The insurance sector, which is an important part of the financial sector, can have a positive impact on economic growth. This effect is mainly due to the reliability and stability of the insurance, the private savings, and the resource-increasing feature of the financial sector. In recent years, it has been given importance to investigate the relationship between insurance and economic growth. In Turkey, which has a significant potential in terms of economic growth, there is a limited study on the relationship between insurance and growth, since the insurance activities have just started to widen. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to fill in this gap and explore this relation between the insurance sector and economic growth for Turkey. For this purpose, by applying annual data between 1983-2020, the relationship between insurance premiums, penetration rate and economic growth in Turkey is analyzed by Pesaran et al. (2001) ARDL method. The Bound test results show that there is a long-term relationship among the variables. According to the ARDL result, while a significant relationship was measured between the total insurance premium and economic growth in the long run, no significant relationship was found between the penetration rate and economic growth.
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