就危机而言,在通往欧洲一体化的道路上使用(硬的和软的)钉住汇率制度

Gordana Kordić
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摘要

正在进行的关于汇率制度选择的讨论的一个重要方面是,它将危机作为一种强烈而意外的外部冲击来应对;2008年以来的大衰退就是这样。人们普遍认为,挂钩汇率制度对可能导致其长期不稳定的外部冲击更为敏感。不过,软钉住汇率制度(也被称为中间汇率制度)的限制较少,其规则为国家战略提供了更多的机动空间。软联系汇率制度在结构和范围上都比硬联系汇率制度更广泛。虽然实行更灵活制度的国家可能利用汇率波动作为自动稳定器,但(硬和/或软)钉住汇率制施加了一些限制。首先,稳定目标与严格的监管规则相结合,限制了货币和汇率政策,要求使用其他策略,如内部贬值。其次,这些国家没有使用广泛的工具,他们的危机战略比其他政权更严格。最后,在加入欧元区前的汇率策略的最优性问题上存在困境,包括引入欧元的策略。这些困境在危机方面加深了。本文采用国际货币基金组织制定的“事实”分类量表,重点比较了选定的欧盟加入国的硬与软挂钩制度(后者也称为中间制度)。尽管发生了危机,但观察到的国家在汇率政策方面并没有出现剧烈的动荡,但总体经济指标清楚地显示出危机的真正深度和缓慢的复苏。值得进一步讨论的问题是,在危机期间,这些制度是应该保留还是放弃,以及它们对国民经济的贡献是什么。此外,考虑到欧洲一体化进程,可能的战略有利有弊。
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USE OF (HARD AND SOFT) PEGGED EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES ON THE PATH TO EUROPEAN INTEGRATIONS IN TERMS OF CRISIS
Important aspect of ongoing discussions on the choice of exchange rate regime is its reaction to crisis as a strong and unexpected external shock; such was the case of Great Recession from 2008.-onwards. It is generally accepted that pegged exchange rate regimes are more sensitive to external shocks that might cause their long-term destabilization. Still, the soft pegged regimes (also entitled intermediate regimes) have fewer limits, with rules that allow more maneuver space for national strategy. The group of soft pegged regimes is wider, both in structure and scope, then those of hard pegged regimes. While countries with more flexible regimes might use exchange rate fluctuations as automatic stabilisator, (hard and/or soft) pegs impose some limitations. In the first place, there is stability goal that, in combination with strict regulatory rules, limits the monetary and exchange rate policy, demanding the use of other strategies, such is the internal devaluation. Secondly, these countries do not use wide scope of instruments and their crisis strategy is more rigid than those of other regimes. Finally, there are dilemmas on the optimality of exchange rate strategy during the pre-eurozone membership period, including the euro introduction strategy. These dilemmas deepen in terms of crisis. This paper focuses on comparison of hard and soft pegged regimes (the latter also entitled intermediate regimes) in selected European union accession countries, using „de facto“classification scale developed by International Monetary Fund. Despite the crisis, there have not been dramatic turbulences in terms of exchange rate policy in observed countries, but the general economic indicators clearly show the real depth of crisis and slow recovery. The question open for further discussion is whether such regimes should be obtained or abandoned during the crisis and what is their contribution to national economy. Furthermore, there are pros and cons of possible strategies, considering the European integration process.
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