讨价还价中的预期效用偏好与前景理论偏好

Abhimanyu Khan
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引用次数: 0

摘要

当个人的偏好可以用预期效用来表示时,他们是否总是更富有?我在一个讨价还价博弈中研究了这个问题,在这个博弈中,个人就一个固定大小的馅饼进行讨价还价,我对比了预期效用最大化者在长期内获得的份额,以及如果他们的偏好是用前景理论偏好描述的,而不是在两种情况下,他们与预期效用最大化者讨价还价时,他们将获得的份额。我提出了如果个人偏好服从前景理论而非预期效用理论,那么个人获得更高份额的充分必要条件。我分解了前景理论偏好的三个特征——参考点依赖、损失厌恶和概率加权——对议价结果的影响,并表明损失厌恶对议价过程的结果没有任何影响,参考点依赖偏好赋予了明确的优势,而概率加权无疑是不利的。这与前面概述的主要结果相联系:如果参考点依赖的向上拉力相对强于概率加权的向下推力,那么个人在前景理论偏好下比在预期效用偏好下更富有,反之亦然。
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Expected Utility Preferences versus Prospect Theory Preferences in Bargaining
Are individuals always better off when their preferences can be represented by expected utility? I study this question in a bargaining game where individuals bargain over a pie of fixed size, and I contrast the share received in the long-run by expected utility maximisers with the share they would receive if their preferences were described by prospect theory preferences instead when, in either case, they bargain with expected utility maximisers. I present a necessary and sufficient condition for individuals to obtain a higher share of the pie if their preferences obey prospect theory rather than expected utility. I decompose the effect that the three features that characterise prospect theory preferences -- reference point dependence, loss-aversion and probability weighting -- have on the bargaining outcome, and show that loss-aversion does not have any effect on the outcome of the bargaining process, reference-point dependent preference confers an unambiguous advantage and probability weighting is unambiguously disadvantageous. This ties in with the main result outlined earlier: if the upward pull of reference point dependence is relatively stronger than the downward push of probability weighting, then individuals are better off with prospect theory preferences than with expected utility preferences, and vice-versa.
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