Altman Z-Score与股票绩效关系的实证分析——以美国上市航空公司为例

Yaofeng Hu, Zha Qi, Di Wang, Yan Wendy Wu
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摘要

本研究着眼于Altman Z-score与美国航空公司股票市场表现之间的相关性。来自美国81家航空公司的运营和财务状况各方面的近千条数据可供使用。此外,本文还将股票收益作为企业股票绩效的一个指标。为了确定Z-score与股票业绩之间的关系,以及从高股票收益中可以推断出的Z-score,我们进行了两种不同的回归过程。第一个回归检验了z分数与股票回报之间的关系,而第二个回归检验了使用虚拟变量的表现良好的航空公司和表现不佳的航空公司之间的z分数是否存在差异。结果表明:美国航空公司的z分数与其股票表现存在显著的正相关关系;此外,高股票回报可能意味着相对较高的z分数,反之亦然。因此,美国航空公司必须采取的关键步骤之一是加强其资产负债表,以吸引投资者对其业务进行投资。
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Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between Altman’s Z-Score and Stock Performance Based on Airline Companies Listed in the United States
This research looks at any relevance between Altman’s Z-score and the stock market performance of airline companies in the United States (US). Nearly a thousand pieces of data on various aspects of operation and financial status from 81 airline companies in the US are available. Additionally, stock return is used as an indicator of firm stock performance in this paper. In order to satisfy the purpose of determining the relationship between Z-score and stock performance as well as what may be inferred from high stock returns with regard to Z-score, two different regression processes are carried out. The first regression tests the relationship between Z-score and stock return, while the second regression examines whether there is a difference in Z-scores between well-performing airline companies and poorly performing ones using dummy variables. The results reveal that there is a significant positive correlation between the Z-scores of US airline companies and their stock performance; besides, high stock returns potentially imply relatively high Z-scores and vice versa. Therefore, one of the crucial steps that US airline companies must make is to strengthen their balance sheets in order to draw investors to make investments in their businesses.
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