让不公平变得公平

R. Vallin
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引用次数: 0

摘要

虽然在抛硬币的序列中,任何给定的连续的一组,比如说,抛三次硬币,都有同样的可能是八种可能中的一种,即HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH,或TTT,但相当奇怪的是,一个三次的序列不一定同样有可能首先出现在另一个三次的序列中。这个事实可以用下面的游戏来说明:你和你的对手每人下注一便士。每个人选择三种模式,裁判员抛硬币,直到出现两种模式中的一种,并将赌注授予选择该模式的玩家。你的对手选择HHH;你选HTH。你会发现,机会对你有利。减少多少?
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Making the Unfair Fair
Although in a sequence of coin flips, any given consecutive set of, say, three flips is equally likely to be one of the eight possible, i.e., HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, or TTT, it is rather peculiar that one sequence of three is not necessarily equally likely to appear first as another set of three. This fact can be illustrated by the following game: you and your opponent each ante a penny. Each selects a pattern of three, and the umpire tosses a coin until one of the two patterns appears, awarding the antes to the player who chose that pattern. Your opponent picks HHH; you pick HTH. The odds, you will find, are in your favor. By how much?
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