公共部门发展支出和投资对经济增长的影响:来自巴基斯坦的证据

Syed Shujaat Ahmed, Asif Javed
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引用次数: 4

摘要

一个国家的投资和经济增长之间存在着密切的联系,这是一个既定的事实,但在投资的类型上没有形成这种直接的共识。哪些行业的投资产生了长期影响并促进了经济增长?目前在这方面的研究将集中于调查公共部门发展方案、外国直接投资和私人投资与增长的关系。在这方面,本研究将使用1980-81年至2015-16年的数据,并采用约翰森协整来调查长期关系。研究发现,随着外商直接投资的增加,卫生支出与交通通信支出在长期内呈负相关。其中,私人投资、教育支出和住房支出与经济增长呈正相关。基于这些发现,建议完全以投资为中心,主要侧重于减少税收和其他障碍,以长期吸引更多投资。除税收外,还对第十八修正案后被划为地方管辖范围的税收和公共部门的行政平衡提出了建议。
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The Effect of Public Sector Development Expenditures and Investment on Economic Growth: Evidence from Pakistan
It is an established fact that there is strong association between investment and economic growth of a country but no such direct consensus had been developed on the type of investment .i.e. what are the different sectors in which investment has led to long term impact and did contributed to the growth. The current study in this regard will focus on investigating the relationship of Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Private Investment with the growth. The study will use data from 1980-81 to 2015-16 in this regard and employ Johansen cointegration to investigate the long run relationship. It is found that with foreign direct investment, health expenditure and transport and communication expenditure has negative relationship in the long run. Where as private investment, education expenditure and expenditure on housing has positive relationship with growth. Based on these findings recommendations were totally investment centric with primary focus on reduction in taxes and other barriers to bring in more investment in long run. Beside taxation, recommendations were made on administrative balance both in tax system and public sectors which were made part of provincial domain after 18th amendment.
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