风能预测和健康管理框架

S. Sheng, Yi-min Guo
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引用次数: 7

摘要

运营和维护成本是风力发电厂能源成本平原化的主要驱动因素,可以通过各种预测和健康管理(PHM)技术实现优化的运营和维护实践来降低运营和维护成本。近年来,风电行业对采用PHM解决方案越来越开放,特别是那些专注于诊断的解决方案。然而,预测活动总体上仍处于研究和发展阶段。另一方面,业界要求在组件发生故障时估计其剩余使用寿命(RUL),这是预测的关键输出。通过强调RUL预测需求,系统地向风电行业展示PHM技术,可能有助于加快其接受速度,并为行业提供更多PHM的好处。本文介绍了风电场框架的PHM模型。它突出了风力涡轮机独特的特点,并集成了数据和物理领域信息和模型。该框架的输出侧重于规则预测。为了说明数据域方法在风电齿轮箱故障诊断中的应用。它使用监控和数据采集系统时间序列数据,参考环境温度和涡轮机功率对变速箱温度测量进行标准化,并利用大数据分析和机器学习技术使模型可扩展,并使诊断过程自动化。本文还讨论了风电齿轮箱高速级轴承轴向裂纹失效RUL预测的另一种物理域建模方法。轴承轴向开裂已被证明是风电齿轮箱中常见的失效模式,它不同于轴承设计阶段所针对的滚动接触疲劳。该方法以失效概率作为部件可靠性评估和RUL预测指标,可扩展到其他传动系统部件或失效模式。所提出的风力框架模型具有通用性,适用于陆基和海上风力发电机组。
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A Prognostics and Health Management Framework for Wind
Operation and maintenance costs are a major driver for levelized cost of energy of wind power plants and can be reduced through optimized operation and maintenance practices accomplishable by various prognostics and health management (PHM) technologies. In recent years, the wind industry has become more open to adopting PHM solutions, especially those focusing on diagnostics. However, prognostics activities are, in general, still at the research and development stage. On the other hand, the industry has a request to estimate a component’s remaining useful life (RUL) when it has faulted, and this is a key output of prognostics. Systematically presenting PHM technologies to the wind industry by highlighting the RUL prediction need potentially helps speed up its acceptance and provides more benefits from PHM to the industry. In this paper, we introduce a PHM for wind framework. It highlights specifics unique to wind turbines and features integration of data and physics domain information and models. The output of the framework focuses on RUL prediction. To demonstrate its application, a data domain method for wind turbine gearbox fault diagnostics is presented. It uses supervisory control and data acquisition system time series data, normalizes gearbox temperature measurements with reference to environmental temperature and turbine power, and leverages big data analytics and machine-learning techniques to make the model scalable and the diagnostics process automatic. Another physics-domain modeling method for RUL prediction of wind turbine gearbox high-speed-stage bearings failed by axial cracks is also discussed. Bearing axial cracking has been shown to be the prevalent wind turbine gearbox failure mode experienced in the field and is different from rolling contact fatigue, which is targeted during the bearing design stage. The method uses probability of failure as a component reliability assessment and RUL prediction metric, which can be expanded to other drivetrain components or failure modes. The presented PHM for wind framework is generic and applicable to both land-based and offshore wind turbines.
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