人口红利:印度政体的演变范式

Amith Kumar, Somesh Dhamija, A. Dhamija
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摘要

在印度这样的民主国家,任何选举都受到众多人口因素的巨大影响。年龄绝对是其中之一。在其他任何选举中,同样的影响都没有上次人民院选举那么突出。大约1.5亿18-23岁的人第一次有资格投票。如此庞大的数字相当于许多欧洲国家的投票人口。自然,他们被吹捧为这方面的游戏改变者,最终的统计结果只是证实了这一点。在选举之前,人们发现,平均而言,全国543个选区的每个选区将增加17.9万新选民。其中大约24%,即43,000人是首次投票。为了衡量同样的意义,并从长远来看,2009年的下议院选举,上届选举的前身,在参加选举的226个选区中,获胜的差距小于这一差距。这篇研究论文将深入研究与此相关的有趣方面,并分析年轻人在大选中发挥的作用,他们对两个主要政党和候选人的表现产生的影响。年轻人的投票是印度政治史上前所未有的。这将突出这次选举与印度政治史上其他选举相比的独特性,因为这是最重要的人口因素之一。
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Demographic Dividend : The Evolving Paradigm of Indian Polity
Any election in a democratic nation like India is hugely influenced by the numerous demographic factors. Age is definitely one of them. In no other election the impact of the same was more prominent than the last lok sabha election. Around 150 million people, aged 18-23 years were qualified to vote for the first time. Such a huge number is equivalent to the voting population of many European nations. Naturally, they were touted to be the game-changers in this regard and the final tally only confirmed that. Prior to the election, it was found that, on an average, 1.79 lakh new voters were to be added to each of the 543 constituencies across the country. Approximately 24 percent of them, or 43,000 were to be first-timer voters. To gauge the significance of the same and put into perspective, the 2009 lok sabha election, predecessor to the last election, witnessed a winning margin of less than this in 226 of the constituencies which went into the election. This research paper would delve upon the interesting aspects related to the same and would analyze the role that youth played in the general election, the influence they wielded on the performance of each of the two major parties and candidates. The youth voted like never before in the history of Indian politics. It would highlight the uniqueness of this election as compared to other elections in the Indian political history with regard to one of the most significant demographic factors.
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