基于网格搜索和交叉验证的智能算法及其在种群分析中的应用

Yangu Zhang, Saiping Chen, Y. Wan
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引用次数: 2

摘要

人口统计与预测是政府制定相关政策的重要依据,由于各种因素的影响,人口特征具有很强的非线性特性。针对目前所有近似模型精度差、缺乏合理性的问题,提出了一种人口统计与预测的交叉验证优化参数最小支持向量机方法。通过网络设计和构造最小二乘支持向量机学习算法,并通过网格搜索和交叉验证的方法选择优化的支持向量机参数,模拟了复杂的强非线性种群特征关系。以人口增长率HforH为例对模型进行了验证,交叉验证优化参数最小支持向量机算法具有较强的非线性映射和自学习能力,有效地避免了部分极小和过拟合现象,可以准确地计算和判断未来的人口问题,通过将网络输出数值与拟合值和数值实值进行比较,获得了较高的精度。它为种群分析提供了一种新的人工智能方法。
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An Intelligent Algorithm Based on Grid Searching and Cross Validation and its Application in Population Analysis
Population statistic and forecast is important basis that government establishes correlative policy, population’s all characteristic has strong non-linear speciality because of all kinds of effects. A cross validation optimized parameter least support vector machine method of population statistic and forecast is presented aiming at bad precision and lack of rationality of all approximate model at present. Complicated and strong nonlinear population characteristic relation is simulated by network design and conformation of the least square support vector machine learning algorithm and selecting the optimized support vector machine parameters by the method of grid searching and cross validation. The model is HverifiedH by taking population growth rate HforH example, cross validation optimized parameter least support vector machine algorithm has strong ability of nonlinear mapping and self-learning, it avoids availably phenomenon of partial minimum and overfitting, the future population problem can be accurately calculated and judged , it gains high precision by comparing numerical value of network output with fitting value and numerical real value. It provides a new artificial intelligent approach for population analysis.
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