油价及其他影响快递公司盈利能力的因素研究

Tan Yin, Law Xuen Ee, Ganeshsree Selvachandran
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摘要

石油作为世界上主要的商业能源,其波动往往与全球经济息息相关。一般来说,人们会认为包括航空公司、快递公司和航运公司在内的运输行业的盈利能力严重依赖于油价的波动。显然,石油似乎是这些公司的主要运营费用。随着油价的下跌,人们自然会认为交通运输业经营良好,因为其运营费用较低,反之亦然。本研究主要关注快递公司的盈利能力是否完全依赖于油价的问题。比较了四家快递公司,即马来西亚邮政、TNT快递、联合包裹服务和德国邮政。分析的数据是2006 - 2014年各快递公司的油价和净利润。进行简单线性回归和t检验分析。结果表明,TNT快递的油价与净利润之间仅呈现线性关系。这意味着马来西亚邮政、联合包裹服务和德国邮政等其他三家公司的净利润主要不受油价的影响。
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A Study of Oil Price and Other Contributing Factors to the Profitability of Courier Companies
Oil, being a major commercial energy source in the world, its fluctuation is often interrelated with the global economy. Generally, people would perceived that earning power of transportation sectors which include airline companies, courier companies and shipping companies are heavily relied on oil price fluctuation. Apparently, oil seems to be the major operating expense for those companies. As oil price goes down, it is naturally assumed that transportation industry is doing well as their operating expense is low and vice versa. This study has focused on the issue of whether the profitability of courier companies are wholly dependent on oil price. Comparison was done between four courier companies, namely Pos Malaysia, TNT Express, United Parcel Service and Deutsche Post. The data analyzed were the oil price and the net profit of each courier company from year 2006 to 2014. Simple linear regression and t-test analysis was done. The results showed that only linear relationship between oil price and net profit was exhibited by TNT Express. This means that the net profit of other three companies including Pos Malaysia, United Parcel Service and Deutsche Post are not mainly affected by oil price.
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