缅甸民主转型的失败

Evisia Novitri, Supriyadi Supriyadi, Adhiningasih Prabhawati
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引用次数: 0

摘要

缅甸是1962年至2021年多次发生军事政变的国家之一。虽然被称为权威统治者,但军政府实施了更民主的政策,例如为新闻自由开放空间,并举行缅甸选举,允许亲民主的政党,即全国民主联盟党参加。然而,军政府在2021年突然发动了军事政变。前几年,缅甸军政府试图进行民主过渡。这就提出了一个问题,即是什么因素导致缅甸的民主过渡失败,尽管以前取得了积极的成果。本文将运用民主转型理论、民主化理论和军民关系概念来分析缅甸的民主转型现象。本研究采用方法-解释的方法来确定缅甸民主转型的失败因素。从所采用的理论、概念和研究方法来看,缅甸民主转型失败的原因有四个方面:一是缅甸的民主转型采用了自上而下的路径。第二个因素是,过渡之后没有建立民主制度。第三个因素是缅甸的军民关系属于不平衡的平民安置范畴。第四个因素是,害怕昂山素季的军方成功地修改了2008年宪法,这将取消军方的特权。
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Failure of Myanmar's Democratic Transition
Myanmar is one of the countries that carried out military coups several times from 1962 to 2021. Although known as an authoritative ruler, the military junta has carried out more democratic policies, such as opening space for press freedom and holding Myanmar‘s election which allowed the participation of a pro-democratic party namely the NLD Party. However, the military junta suddenly staged a military coup in 2021. In previous years, Myanmar's military junta attempted to make a democratic transition. This raises the question of what factors caused the democratic transition in Myanmar to fail, despite previous positive results. The phenomenon of democratic transition in Myanmar will be analyzed using democratic transition theory, democratization theory, and the concept of civil-military relations. This study uses an approach-explanation approach to determine the failure factors of the democratic transition in Myanmar. Based on the theories, concepts, and research methods used, the failure of the democratic transition in Myanmar occurred due to four factors: The first factor is the democratic transition in Myanmar using the top-down path. The second factor is that the transition is not followed by the installation of democracy. The third factor is that the civil-military relations in Myanmar are included in the category of unbalanced civilian accommodation. The fourth factor, the military afraid of Aung San Suu Kyi succeeded in amending the 2008 constitution which will remove military privileges.
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