人力资本对经济增长的影响——巴基斯坦的一个增长核算方程

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摘要

研究人员对探索人力资本的各个维度并观察其对经济增长的巨大影响的兴趣使人力资本理论成为经济学家的一个迷人的研究领域。该研究侧重于人力资本的影响,并估计了巴基斯坦的增长会计方程。为了实现研究目标,我们利用2001年至2014年的时间序列数据估计了两个模型。第一个模型使用跨对数函数将标准的柯布-道格拉斯生产函数转换为线性形式。第二个模型使用了三个不同层次的教育入学率指标,以及两个人力资本健康指标。模型首先得出巴基斯坦经济在研究期间经历了规模收益递减的结论。模型2显示,人均产出与中、高等教育入学率呈正相关,而高等教育入学率与预期寿命呈不显著关系,而婴儿死亡率与初等教育入学率呈显著负相关。该研究建议的政策影响是,在选定的三级入学人数中,教育部门可侧重于提高中级入学人数,而卫生部门可侧重于降低婴儿死亡率,以提高该国的人均产出。该研究报告首次强调,需要将人力资本作为一项独立的生产要素,像传统的劳动力和资本一样列入巴基斯坦的国民核算统计数字。
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Impact of Human Capital on Economic Growth- A Growth Accounting Equation for Pakistan
The interest of researchers in exploring the various dimensions of human capital and observing its considerable impact on economic growth has caused the human capital theory to become a fascinating field of research for economists. The study focused on the impact of the human capital along with estimating a growth accounting equation for Pakistan. To fulfill the objectives of the study, two models have been estimated utilizing time series data from year 2001 to 2014. The first model transforms the standard Cobb-Douglas production function to its linear form using trans-log function. The 2nd model used three proxies of education enrolment at various levels along with two health proxies for human capital. The result drawn from model first concluded that Pakistan economy undergone through decreasing returns to scale during period under consideration. The 2nd model showed that the output per person is positively related to middle & higher secondary education enrolments while the enrolment at higher secondary education level & life expectancy showed a non-significant relationship contrary to infant mortality rate & primary education enrolment that showed negative and significant relationship. The study recommended policy implications that amongst the chosen enrolments at three levels, the education department may focus on enhancing enrolment at middle level while the health department may focus on reduction in infant mortality rate for enhancing per capita output in the country. The study has emphasized, for the first time, the need for inclusion of human capital as a separate factor of production like traditional labour and capital in national accounts statistics of Pakistan.
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