在印度背景下估计COVID-19早期大流行的严重程度

M. Mandal, S. Mandal
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The RSODS estimates were 1.97 (0.47-3.47), 0.62 (0.15-1.09), 0.29 (0.07-0.52), 0.06 (0.02-0.10) respectively, for patients <45 years, 45-60, 60-75, >75 years. Similar trend, for RSODI were found, with relatively higher value, compared to RSODS, which decreased with the increase of age. The 14-day lag estimate of CFR were 18.07 (15.67- 20.47), and outcome (deaths plus recoveries)-based estimate of CFR were 16.57 (14.65-18.49). The growth rate, serial interval, reproduction number and average time from onset of COVID-19 infection to death were 6.12% (5.30%-6.99%), 11.4 days (9.91-12.85), 1.03 (1.01-1.05), and 11.85 days (10.55-13.15), respectively. The average daily recovery was 19.45% (14.75- 24.15) and average cumulative recovery was 12.68% (10.70- 14.66) among COVID-19 patients. 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摘要

目的:根据各种病死率(CFR)估计,探讨印度COVID-19大流行早期严重程度。方法:估计各种COVID-19死亡病例:确诊CFR (cCFR)、无症状CFR (aCFR)、有症状CFR (sCFR)和住院CFR (HFR),以及出现症状的相对易感性(RSODS)和出现感染的相对易感性(RSODI)测定,所有年龄组的Psym(出现症状的概率)分别为0.50、0.75和0.95。结果:cCFR、aCFR、sCFR、HFR分别为2.32%(2.05 ~ 2.59)、0.14%(0.12 ~ 0.16)、0.32%(0.27 ~ 0.36)、1.86%(1.64 ~ 2.07)。75岁人群的RSODS和RSODI比75岁人群高约33倍。RSODI的变化趋势与RSODS相似,随着年龄的增长,RSODI的值相对较高,而RSODS的值则随年龄的增长而下降。14天的延迟估计CFR为18.07(15.67- 20.47),基于结果(死亡加康复)的CFR估计为16.57(14.65-18.49)。新冠肺炎的生长率为6.12%(5.30% ~ 6.99%),序列间隔为11.4 d(9.91 ~ 12.85),繁殖数为1.03 d(1.01 ~ 1.05),平均发病至死亡时间为11.85 d(10.55 ~ 13.15)。新冠肺炎患者平均日康复率为19.45%(14.75 ~ 24.15),平均累计康复率为12.68%(10.70 ~ 14.66)。结论:在COVID-19大流行的整个过程中检测到所有可能的病例,可以估计实际CFR,以评估卫生保健系统和新治疗方法的有效性
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Estimating COVID-19 Early Pandemic Severity in Indian Context
Objective: To explore the early pandemic severity of COVID-19 in India in terms of various case fatality rate (CFR) estimates. Methods: Various COVID-19 fatalities: confirmed CFR (cCFR), asymptomatic CFR (aCFR), symptomatic CFR (sCFR), and hospitalized CFR (HFR) were estimated along with relative susceptibility of developing symptoms (RSODS) and relative susceptibility of developing infection (RSODI) determination for Psym (probability of developing symptoms) 0.50, 0.75, and 0.95 each for all age groups. Results: The cCFR, aCFR, sCFR, and HFR estimates were 2.32% (2.05-2.59), 0.14% (0.12-0.16), 0.32% (0.27-0.36), 1.86% (1.64-2.07) respectively. The RSODS and RSODI of COVID-19 were ~33 times higher among people aged <45 years. The RSODS estimates were 1.97 (0.47-3.47), 0.62 (0.15-1.09), 0.29 (0.07-0.52), 0.06 (0.02-0.10) respectively, for patients <45 years, 45-60, 60-75, >75 years. Similar trend, for RSODI were found, with relatively higher value, compared to RSODS, which decreased with the increase of age. The 14-day lag estimate of CFR were 18.07 (15.67- 20.47), and outcome (deaths plus recoveries)-based estimate of CFR were 16.57 (14.65-18.49). The growth rate, serial interval, reproduction number and average time from onset of COVID-19 infection to death were 6.12% (5.30%-6.99%), 11.4 days (9.91-12.85), 1.03 (1.01-1.05), and 11.85 days (10.55-13.15), respectively. The average daily recovery was 19.45% (14.75- 24.15) and average cumulative recovery was 12.68% (10.70- 14.66) among COVID-19 patients. Conclusion: Detecting all possible cases throughout the course of the COVID-19 pandemic real CFR could be estimated to evaluate the effectiveness of healthcare systems and new treatments
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