外资流入:尼日利亚经济发展的灵丹妙药

Foluso Ololade Oluwole
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摘要

这项研究考察了外国资本流入对尼日利亚经济发展的影响。本研究采用增强迪基-富勒(ADF)法、边界检验法和自回归分布滞后法对尼日利亚中央银行(2019年)的年度数据进行分析。ARDL约束检验结果揭示了外资流入与尼日利亚经济发展之间的长期关系。ARDL系数显示,外商直接投资对人均收入的影响为正但不显著(c=0.056;P =0.17),而外国证券投资与人均收入之间存在显著正相关关系(c=0.0001;p = 0.01)。此外,控制变量汇率对人均收入有正但不显著的影响(c=0.03;P =0.75),而通货膨胀率对人均收入有负的显著影响(c= -0.02;p = 0.053)。因果关系检验表明,外资流入对尼日利亚经济发展没有格兰杰影响。因此,它的结论是,外国资本的流入未能充分改善尼日利亚的人均收入。该研究建议,应采取宽松的政策,纳税和利润汇出国外,以鼓励外国直接投资流入经济。必须发展金融市场,并制定政策以减少不断上升的通货膨胀,以鼓励外国投资者。
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FOREIGN CAPITAL INFLOWS: A PANACEA FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA
This study examined the effect of foreign capital inflows on economic development in Nigeria. The study adopted Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF), Bound Test and Autoregressive Distributed Lag to analyze the yearly data sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria (2019). The ARDL Bound Test result revealed long run relationship between foreign capital inflows and economic development in Nigeria. The ARDL coefficients revealed that foreign direct investment had positive but insignificant effect on per capita income (c=0.056; p=0.17) while positive and significant relationship was established between foreign portfolio investment and per capita income (c=0.0001; p=0.01). Furthermore, the control variable, exchange rate was found to have positive but insignificant effect on per capita income (c=0.03; p=0.75) while inflation rate had negative and significant effect on per capita income (c= -0.02; p=0.053). the causality test revealed that foreign capital inflows did not granger cause economic development in Nigeria. It thus concluded that the inflow of foreign capital has not been able to fully improve per capital income in Nigeria. The study recommended that, easy policies tax payment and expatriation of profit should be initiated to encourage the inflow of foreign direct investment in the economy. The financial markets need to be developed and policies to reduce spiraling inflation should be put in place to encourage foreign investors.
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