Application of Time-Lapse Pressure Transient Analysis to Predict Gas Water Contact Movement and Water Breakthrough Time: Results from a Reservoir off the North Coast of Trinidad

A single well, satellite gas accumulation offshore North Trinidad exhibits a strong water drive mechanism and is in pressure communication with two neighbouring fields through a common aquifer. Monitoring and predicting the movement of the gas water contact (GWC) is critical to reservoir management and resources estimation. This paper is the culmination of a study that was conducted over a five-year period, analyzing high quality downhole pressure buildup data to track the GWC movement in the field. Analysis of late time boundary dominated flow regime in multiple time lapsed pressure derivatives indicated a movement in the gas-water phase boundary, believed to be the contact. Pressure transient analysis (PTA) enabled the translation of shifting pressure derivatives to alternate GWC contour realizations. These matched derivatives provided a quantitative estimation of the contours which were then converted to an equivalent contact radius. For both edge water or bottom water drive mechanisms, the equivalent contact radius was then correlated to the field's cumulative gas produced. Prediction of water breakthrough was done by estimating a range of contours arriving near the well and calculating the corresponding recoverable gas volume from the generated correlation. Multiple analytically derived functions were used to correlate the equivalent contact radius with the gas produced. A strong correlation was observed on regressing produced volumes with the interpreted contact radii. Due to inherent uncertainties with sweep efficiency, as a proxy, three idealized cases were defined for arrival of water close to the well to capture a low, mid and high scenario. Using these cases, water breakthrough was predicted to occur for produced volumes in the range of 58 Bscf to 70 Bscf, with a mid-case of 64 Bscf. In May 2015, actual water breakthrough occurred after 62 Bscf of production thus, strongly validating the robustness of the time lapse pressure derivative analysis study. For gas reservoirs supported by moderate to strong aquifer drive, we suggest this as a robust workflow independent of 3D numerical reservoir simulation to predict recoverable volumes and water breakthrough timing. The observation of contact movement for gas reservoirs connected through a common aquifer could have significant implications on the conventional understanding around such reservoirs and their optimum management strategy.